Finansia Syrus Securities projects that CP Axtra Public Company Limited (SET: CPAXT) will record a net profit of THB 2.6 billion for the first quarter of 2026, representing a slight YoY decline of 0.7% yet a small QoQ rise of 2.4%. The quarterly recovery follows a low base in 4Q25 caused by Lotus’s IT system outage. Improved sales and effective cost control, particularly in both Makro and Lotus’s businesses, are cited as key drivers.
Total sales in 1Q26 are expected to grow by 4% YoY. This is supported by same-store sales (SSS) expansion in the Makro segment (+1.3% YoY), while Lotus’s SSS is projected to remain flat. March 2026 saw the strongest SSS performance, benefitting from consumer stockpiling and the addition of new branches alongside the lucky frozen promotion. Rental income is also anticipated to show modest YoY growth.
On profitability, CPAXT’s gross profit margin (GPM) is forecasted to dip YoY to 14.2%, down from 14.5% in 1Q25, largely due to a higher proportion of dry food sales driven by stockpiling behavior. However, GPM should recover on a QoQ basis from the previous quarter’s low, also helped by reversal of some shrinkage entries set aside in 4Q25. Cost discipline is expected to offset GPM pressure, with SG&A-to-sales ratio declining from effective expense management in both business units.
First-quarter profit is forecasted to account for 25.4% of full-year projections. Finansia Syrus maintains its 2026 full-year net profit growth forecast at 9.7% YoY, primarily benefitting from a low 2025 base.
Looking ahead, CPAXT stands to gain from continued consumer stockpiling and government stimulus measures such as the “Khon La Khrueng” (Half-Half) co-payment scheme. Nonetheless, heightened competition and a relatively high 2026 P/E multiple of 16x—above peers—lead the brokerage to recommend only short-term speculative positions on the stock.
