Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) noted the recent decision by the Thai Cabinet to end the 60-day visa-free entry for citizens of 93 countries, reverting to the previous visa policy framework. The resolution is seen as having a negative short-term sentiment for the tourism sector.
However, the brokerage expects the fundamental impact to be limited, estimating that the effect on the total number of inbound tourists will be only about 1-3%. Although less than 10% of tourists typically stay for longer than 30 days, not all travelers from the affected countries are expected to cancel their trips; some are likely to adjust their travel plans or apply for visas instead.
Furthermore, FSS notes that long-stay tourists have only a minimal overlap with the main customer base of most hotel operators, who predominantly target short-stay guests. The brokerage also anticipates that the government may introduce alternative measures, such as short-term visa schemes for key source markets like China and India, which could further limit the downside risk to overall tourism demand.
The financial impact on the revenue and earnings of listed tourism companies is expected to be very low and insufficient to materially alter the sector’s earnings outlook.
The exposure of Thai tourism operators to Chinese and Indian tourists also remains modest: CENTEL derives 7% of its hotel revenue from Chinese guests and 3% from Indian guests, ERW reports 14% and 6% respectively for its luxury-to-economy hotel portfolio, while AOT sees 15% and 7% of its international passenger volume from these two countries.
