Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) expects 1Q26E earnings to expand by 16% QoQ and 8% YoY. The 1Q26E earnings forecast for the SET Index (excluding Property Funds & REITs) by Bloomberg Consensus, covering 99 companies (representing 80% of Market Capitalization), stands at 241 billion baht.
Excluding the banking sector, which showed strong growth from fee income, the SET ex-BANK earnings are projected at 173 billion baht, expanding 15% QoQ and 11% YoY. This reflects robust growth in the Real Sector as well. Currently, among the 14 companies that Bloomberg Consensus has forecasted and have already reported earnings (representing 33% of Market Capitalization), earnings exceeded expectations by 15%. This comprises 9 companies with better-than-expected earnings and five companies in line with market expectations.
1Q26E Sector Earnings Forecast: Sectors expected to grow both QoQ and YoY:
- ICT Sector: Expanding 1% QoQ and 48% YoY, driven by ADVANC and TRUE due to spectrum cost reductions and lower Depreciation and Amortization (D&A).
- Electronics Sector: Expanding 24% QoQ and 51% YoY, primarily driven by DELTA, benefiting from improved Gross Profit Margin (GPM) from the AI/Data Center product mix.
- Finance Sector: Expanding 13% QoQ and 15% YoY, supported by KTC due to lower Credit Cost, and TIDLOR following loan growth and improved Credit Cost.
- Transportation Sector: Expanding 53% QoQ and 2% YoY, driven by AOT benefiting from stable intra-Asia travel, and BEM through revenue growth in the expressway and mass transit businesses.
- Construction Materials and Petrochemicals Sectors: Projecting a Turnaround as petrochemical spreads accelerate due to Middle East conflicts, supporting profits for SCC and PTTGC.
Sectors expected to expand YoY only:
- Energy Sector: Expanding 3% YoY, supported by IRPC and BCP benefiting from the Middle East conflict. The Power Plant group, including BCPG, benefits from high PJM market electricity rates; GULF is supported by recognized electricity sales from Commercial Operation Date (COD) of new plants, profit sharing from ADVANC, and the Jackson power plant; GPSC benefits from extraordinary items.
- Retail Sector: Expanding 2% YoY, driven by CPALL and MOSHI with positive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG), improved Gross Profit Margins, and the positive impact of branch expansions.
- Tourism Sector: Expanding 5% YoY, with standout growth from Thailand-based hotel groups ERW and CENTEL, as Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) expands in line with domestic tourism conditions.
- Property Sector: Supported by SPALI and AP through residential revenue growth, and CPN from strong operating performance.
Sectors expected to contract both QoQ and YoY:
- Agribusiness Sector: Pressured by TFM and GFPT due to decreased exports and high feed costs.
Strategy: Select Stocks with Strong Earnings + War-Immune Businesses
MST recommends investors to focus on selecting stocks with projected 1Q26E expansion and strong 2026 earnings growth, where the impact of the Middle East conflict on business is limited, and where share prices have declined more than the SET since the onset of the US-Iran conflict. Preferred picks include BEM, BCPG, TRUE, GULF, ITC, and TIDLOR.
