CLSA Securities notes that Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) delivered a strong performance in the first quarter of 2026, with net profit reaching THB 6.1 billion (THB 4.2 EPS), a significant jump from THB 2.2 billion in 4Q25 and THB 2.1 billion in the same period last year. The result was mainly attributed to the robust refinery business and a notable stock gain.
BCP’s refining business recorded a Gross Refining Margin (GRM) of US$18.6 per barrel, up from US$10.8 per barrel in the previous quarter. Utilization rates remained steady at 95%. The company reported a stock gain of THB 7.5 billion, offset by an unrealised hedging loss of THB 8.5 billion, including losses from subsidiary OKEA in Norway.
The marketing segment also posted solid results, with EBITDA growing 22% quarter-on-quarter, spurred by record sales volumes, although net marketing margin declined to THB 0.73 per litre due to increased crude costs. OKEA contributed to the growth with a 92% surge in sales volume and higher energy prices, lifting its EBITDA above 100% QoQ to THB 4.3 billion. Overall, BCP’s group EBITDA soared 94% to THB 17.8 billion in 1Q26.
Looking ahead, CLSA Securities warns of softer earnings in the second quarter due to government-enforced ex-refinery price cuts between 9 April and 19 May, which are projected to reduce profits by THB 2.4 billion.
Operationally, BCP is set to commence commercial shipments of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) sooner than planned, starting in May 2026. The company expects a 70–80% run rate in May and June, with further ramp-up in the third quarter. SAF is anticipated to contribute THB 1 billion in EBITDA this year, accounting for 3% of group EBITDA.
CLSA maintains its “Outperform” rating on BCP with a target price of THB 43.00, highlighting that share price may be capped in the near term pending government decisions on refinery price cuts.
