On Thursday at 11:51 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Stecon Group Public Company Limited (SET: STECON) rose by 4.96% or THB 0.70 to THB 14.80, with a trading value of THB 423.94 million.
Tisco Securities has assessed the 2026 earnings outlook for STECON and sees a strong potential recovery. The brokerage expects STECON’s net profit for the second quarter of 2026 to show robust growth compared both to the same period last year and to the previous quarter, driven primarily by dividend income received from GULF amounting to THB 736 million.
Additionally, government project tendering activity is anticipated to pick up substantially in the second half of 2026, particularly with several large-scale projects on the horizon. Key projects include the second phase of the Thai-Chinese high-speed rail project valued at THB 98 billion, the M9 motorway project worth THB 56 billion, and various airport expansion projects. The construction of U-Tapao Airport is also expected to commence in 2026, providing further opportunity for STECON to secure new contracts in the future.
As of now, STECON’s backlog stands at THB 122 billion, equivalent to approximately 3.5x its advance payment, highlighting healthy visibility for future earnings. In the first quarter of 2026, the company secured THB 6.78 billion in new projects, covering data center construction, commercial buildings, and environmental projects.
Tisco notes that STECON remains well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing rise in demand for data center construction in Thailand, thanks to its extensive project experience. The total combined contract value for Data Center projects 1 through 4 amounts to THB 19.6 billion. Investments by hyperscaler operators and cloud service providers in Thailand are accelerating, suggesting the company may have further opportunities to win additional data center contracts going forward.
Meanwhile, STECON continues to diversify its investments into new businesses, with a target capital expenditure of THB 3 billion in 2026. The company aims to conclude at least two deals in the data center segment, two in renewable energy, one in logistics, and one in new technologies. Most of these opportunities are either already highly feasible or are currently in the bidding process as of 1Q26. The company plans to fund these investments primarily through bond issuance.
Tisco maintains its net profit forecasts for STECON for 2026-2028 and reiterates a ‘Buy’ recommendation, with a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) fair value estimate of THB 15.20 per share. This is compared to the current share price of THB 14.20, representing an upside potential of 7%. The stock also offers a dividend yield of 3.8%, bringing the total potential return to approximately 11%.
The fair value estimate is derived from a 2026 PER of 15x for the construction business, as well as the fair value of the company’s stakes in GULF at THB 74.00 per share, TSE at THB 0.99 per share, and a 15% holding in both EBM and NBM, adjusted for net debt and a 10% holding discount.
Tisco forecasts STECON’s 2026 net profit at THB 1.89 billion, or THB 1.24 per share. Key risks to monitor include potential project construction delays, higher-than-expected costs, sub-contractor shortages, and the possibility of securing fewer new projects than anticipated.
