Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has revised its outlook on Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC), raising earnings estimates by 4-5% from 2026 onwards. This upward adjustment comes on the back of stronger-than-expected first-quarter results and an improved international tourist projection.
For the years 2026 and 2027, KKPS forecasts CRC’s net profit at THB 8.1 billion, showing a flat year-on-year growth, and THB 9.2 billion, representing a 13% year-on-year rise, respectively. The company’s target price has been revised upwards from THB 24.1 to THB 24.64 per share, calculated based on the average between discounted cash flow and price-to-earnings ratio (PER) targets.
CRC remains favored by KKPS for its resilient sales, cost control—including both operating and finance costs—which are expected to provide a buffer against Thailand’s currently subdued consumption environment. Valuation-wise, CRC’s 2026 estimated PER stands at 15.3x, which is below the local peers’ average of 15.8x and one standard deviation under its historical average of 19.0x, making the stock appear attractive at current levels.
KKPS maintains the view that the second quarter could represent a trough for CRC’s performance, with sequential improvements expected in the following quarters. This anticipated turnaround is cited as a potential catalyst for the share price in the near term, reinforcing a ‘Buy’ recommendation given by the brokerage.
Regarding operational trends, conversations with CRC management revealed that May’s same-store sales are expected to show a positive low single-digit increase, slightly outpacing April’s performance. A recovery in tourist arrivals—following a slowdown caused by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran—has contributed to this strength, as the figures rebounded by 12.3% for the week of May 18-24.
This bolsters KKPS’ confidence that CRC’s second-quarter like-for-like retail margin (excluding its Rinascente business) could surpass last year’s level.
For 2Q26, KKPS anticipates that CRC will report a core profit of THB 1.1 billion, representing a 14% year-on-year decline. However, excluding Rinascente, net profit after tax (NPAT) could climb by 23% year-on-year. If these projections materialize, CRC’s first-half 2026 NPAT would reach THB 4 billion, reflecting 15% year-on-year growth and meeting 50% of KKPS’ annual forecast.
Key drivers for the year include a projected 2% same-store sales growth, a 20 basis-point margin expansion, and a 20 basis-point decrease in selling, general and administrative expenses to total revenue, due to stronger cost controls.
