On Friday at 2:00 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of BTS Group Holdings Public Company Limited (SET: BTS) expanded by 1.92% or THB 0.04 to THB 2.12, with a trading value of THB 124.56 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that BTS Group held an analyst meeting on Thursday to summarize its performance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and to provide guidance and financial projections for the fiscal year 2027 (April 2026 to March 2027).
Management set an ambitious total revenue target of THB 27 billion, representing a 19% year-on-year growth, though this target remains challenging and will require further validation, with the company likely to continue posting net losses.
BTS highlighted that the primary drivers expected to support revenue growth are the group’s subsidiaries, led by Rabbit Holding, having outlined plans for 22-32% growth, reaching THB 6-6.5 billion, driven by real estate and hotel businesses in Europe. This is followed by VGI, which anticipates 8-10% growth from the Rcash and Rcare business units. Roctec is also expected to achieve single-digit growth.
BTS’ outlook is seen by Krungsri as being ‘overly optimistic’, while the brokerage has adopted a more conservative assumption, setting a revenue target at THB 22.8 billion. While VGI and Rabbit Holding could help push revenue above expectations, Krungsri noted that costs, particularly selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A), are likely to rise to drive this growth. As a result, higher revenue may not necessarily translate to higher profits, as was observed in the previous fiscal year.
Regarding Visionary Park, a mixed-use building project, the current occupancy rate as of the end of March 2026 stands at approximately 40%. BTS disclosed that, at this level, the project can achieve positive EBITDA, but acknowledged that it will still report a net loss at the bottom line.
The company expects a major tenant to sign a lease in the near term, which will boost the occupancy rate by another 15-18% by year-end, with a positive impact on revenue and profits expected to be seen from the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2027 onwards.
BTS also reiterated its position that the best solution to address the complexities of the payment system and government subsidies for private operators—especially in relation to the new fare structure of THB 17-45 with no entry fee for inter-line travel—is for the government to monitor passenger journeys individually to provide fair subsidies to operators. The company believes that state subsidies could be significant and thus regards a government buyback of concessions as the most effective way to simplify the process.
Krungsri maintains its revenue forecast for BTS at THB 22 billion and anticipates a net loss of THB 2 billion in fiscal year 2027, as a result of impacts from the Pink and Yellow Line Transits as well as Visionary Park.
Nevertheless, the brokerage continues to recommend a ‘Buy’ rating for BTS, maintaining a target price at THB 4.00 per share, based on the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation. This presents a 92% upside from the closing market price of THB 2.08, as the current valuation is considered extremely attractive, with the shares trading at -2SD below book value (P/BV).
