Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on June 15, 2026, that the Thai market may potentially rise along with the regional markets’ trend. This followed news of a pending MOU signing to officially end the war between the United States and Iran. The analyst set a support level for the SET Index at 1,600 points, and a resistance level at 1,615 points.
However, Mr. Pobchai anticipated that gains in the Thai bourse may not be as strong as its regional peers, given the high weightings of the energy, petrochemical, and refinery sectors in Thailand. These sectors could face pressure from declining oil prices.
On the other hand, stocks that previously suffered from high energy costs, especially in the electronics sector such as DELTA and HANA, as well as companies that benefit from lower oil prices, are likely to see gains.
For this week, Mr. Pobchai expects the SET Index to gradually move up or sideways-up, potentially testing 1,640 points if market sentiment remains positive. Investors are advised to monitor the progress ahead of the MOU signing on Friday, as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which may take time due to mine clearance and maritime traffic management.
Additionally, the analyst recommends investors closely monitor central bank meetings, particularly the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which may raise rates by 0.25 percentage point, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BOE), which are expected to keep rates unchanged. Market participants will closely watch these committees’ views on future policy rate direction, especially as the U.S.-Iran conflict appears to be easing, impacting energy and oil prices downward.
Meanwhile, the baht has strengthened to around THB 32.54 per US dollar, partly due to a weaker dollar and renewed net foreign inflows into the Thai market—about THB 4 billion in net buys last Friday. This reflects foreign investors’ willingness to return to risk assets as the Middle East situation shows signs of improvement.
Nevertheless, global supply chains may not return to normal immediately even after the Strait of Hormuz reopening, as there are still many vessels awaiting shipment and maritime logistics need reorganization. Mr. Pobchai expects the normalcy to return within half a month or one month, as such, inflationary pressures may persist for another 1-2 months, or perhaps until late 3Q26.
For investment strategy, The analyst advised caution with upstream energy, refinery, and petrochemical sectors due to risks from falling oil prices and potential inventory losses. Conversely, the retail energy sector such as OR stands to gain from improved marketing margins, and sectors including airports, airlines, tourism, hotels, and power plants will benefit from lower energy costs.
