Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited (SET: MTC) continues to demonstrate resilient asset quality management, supporting investor confidence despite recent share price volatility.
According to Krungsri Securities (KSS), MTC’s non-performing loan ratio was stable at 2.57% in 1Q26, which is indicative of effective risk management. This solid asset quality is underpinned by a combination of prudent credit underwriting standards that emphasize borrower quality, a strict loan-to-value cap at 50% of collateral, frequent recalibrations of collateral valuations, and proactive field-level debt monitoring.
Further supporting the company’s risk profile is a robust coverage ratio of 144% as of 1Q26, which highlights management’s cautious provisioning approach. Additionally, the company has benefited from recent government stimulus measures, which have also contributed to maintaining sound credit metrics.
Looking ahead, Krungsri sees upside potential for MTC’s 2026 net profit. There is evidence that credit costs will remain below initial forecasts: the 2026 credit cost is targeted at no more than 260 basis points, while 1Q26 results came in at just 211 bps, outperforming the analyst’s estimate of 270 bps.
Management continues to bolster provisions as a measure of prudence, reinforcing confidence that asset quality will remain stable. According to Krungsri, should credit costs decline by every 10 bps, there could be an additional 2% upside to the projected 2026 net profit of THB 7,082 million, and an incremental THB 1 upside per share to their 2026 fair value estimate.
Despite strong operational performance, MTC’s share price has experienced a significant correction, declining 14% since tensions escalated in the Middle East. However, Krungsri believes the market has already absorbed most of the downside, as evidenced by the share’s forward price-to-book multiple of 1.2x—about 1.5 standard deviations below its historical mean.
This suggests valuation is already reflecting concerns over asset quality, leaving potential for price recovery should fundamentals continue to improve. Following these, Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on MTC, with a 2026 fair value target price of THB 40.00 per share, based on the GGM method and implying a price-to-book value of 1.7x.
