Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on June 17, 2026, stated that the Thai market may potentially continue to move sideways. Although the ceasefire and a potential end to the war are positive factors for risk assets worldwide, the Thai bourse is still under pressure from the energy and petrochemical sectors, which collectively account for approximately 25% of the market.
Oil prices have recently fallen from nearly $90 per barrel to below $80, causing energy and petrochemical stocks to weigh on the index over the past two days. Meanwhile, stocks that benefit from lower oil prices, such as power plants, tourism, airlines, and finance, have already adjusted upward to factor in some positive developments.
At the same time, the electronics sector, which previously led the market, has seen some profit-taking, especially DELTA, after its weighting in the index increased significantly. The Thai stock exchange limits individual stock weights at no more than 10%, which has put a cap on the overall market movement.
For the remainder of this week, Mr. Chaiyot expects the SET index to continue its sideways trend, as the positive impact of the ceasefire has already been largely priced in. The market currently lacks any new, clear supporting factors, except for individual stocks with unique catalysts.
Investors are also closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting tonight, especially the perspective of the new Fed chair on the economy, inflation, the labor market, and the interest rate outlook, all of which are critical to investment flows and the capital market environment.
Mr. Chaiyot anticipates that the Fed will likely maintain its policy rate at this meeting. Although U.S. headline inflation has shown some acceleration, core inflation is not rising rapidly enough to prompt an immediate rate hike. Additionally, the recent decline in oil prices from previous levels should help ease inflationary pressure going forward.
However, what the market needs to monitor closely is not just the Fed’s decision, but also its outlook on the U.S. economy following the recent acceleration in inflation and its view on the still-strong labor market. These will be key variables in assessing the direction of future interest rates.
Regarding the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which has dropped to around 4.43%, Mr. Chaiyot noted that although oil prices have decreased significantly—alleviating some inflation concerns—the market has not fully embraced the idea that inflation will slow quickly, so the bond yield has not fallen sharply.
In addition, the announcement of SET50 and SET100 index revision should provide a speculative boost to certain stocks, particularly those anticipated to be added, such as THAI, which may be included in both the SET50 and SET100 indices due to its high market capitalization.
Nevertheless, THAI still faces investor concerns regarding the remaining 75% of debt-to-equity converted shares, which will exit the Silent Period on August 3, 2026. This may exert short-term downward pressure on the share price as market participants are wary of the potentially large volume of shares that could be sold.
However, THAI retains important positive factors, including the potential inclusion in the SET50/SET100 indices and lower fuel costs, which account for approximately 40% of airline operating costs. Should operating performance improve in line with increased tourist arrivals and falling oil prices, the company’s earnings will become a key factor supporting and driving its share price going forward. Investors are advised to focus more on profit trends rather than just concerns over possible selling of the converted shares.
