Kiatnakin Phatra Securities maintains its Neutral rating on CP Axtra Public Company Limited (SET: CPAXT) with a price objective of THB 18.50, as higher oil prices and subdued consumer spending are expected to impact the company’s second-quarter performance. Currently trading at THB 15.00, CPAXT is projected to report a pre-exceptional profit of Bt2.1 billion for 2Q26, reflecting a 9% decline year-on-year.
The analyst notes that while CPAXT showed early signs of recovery in 1Q26 following a challenging 4Q25, 2Q26 is likely to see earnings soften. Weaker results are anticipated from the company’s retail operations, particularly Lotus’s B2C business, alongside higher selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs driven by ongoing investments in omnichannel strategy and promotional campaigns. For the first half of 2026, net profit after tax (NPAT) is estimated at Bt4.8 billion, down 4% year-on-year, or about 46% of the full-year forecast.
Retail sales are expected to remain flat year-on-year at Bt125 billion, with wholesale (Makro B2B) revenue up 4% to Bt72 billion but B2C sales slipping 2% to Bt54 billion. While B2B same-store sales growth (SSSG) in Thailand remains in low single digits, international operations such as Cambodia continue to face challenges. B2C SSS is also expected to deteriorate due to weak domestic consumer sentiment and shifts in spending patterns away from modern trade following the co-payment program.
With a product mix increasingly weighted toward lower-margin dry foods, higher logistics costs, and persistent price investments, CPAXT’s consolidated margin is forecast to decline by 30 basis points year-on-year to 14%, with gross profit down 1% to Bt18 billion.
SG&A expenses are projected to rise 3% to Bt17 billion, representing 13.9% of sales (+20bps YoY), primarily from campaign activities and omnichannel expenses. As a result, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are expected to fall 12% to Bt3.8 billion, with EBIT margin dropping 40bps year-on-year to 3%. However, lower interest expenses and some improvement in equity income may offer a partial offset to the overall earnings shortfall.
