Krungsri Securities expects CP ALL Public Company Limited (SET: CPALL) to post year-on-year core profit growth in 2026, buoyed by its 7-Eleven convenience store operations and lower financing costs. After discussions with CPALL’s investor relations team, Krungsri Securities forecasts 2026 core profit at THB 7.2 billion—up 3% YoY but down 19% QoQ due to seasonality and higher energy costs.
7-Eleven, which contributes 46% of CPALL’s sales and 73% of EBIT, continues to outperform peers with same-store sales (SSS) expected to grow 1% in 2026. The growth is supported by rising customer numbers and a higher proportion of high-margin products, such as ready-to-eat food, beverages, and personal care items. Enhanced promotional collaborations with suppliers are also forecast to boost promotional revenue ahead of sales growth.
Conversely, larger retail and wholesale operations under CPAXT (48% of sales) are likely to see falling SSS at MAKRO and Lotus’s. Weaker consumer purchasing power and the impact of the Thai Chua Thai Plus government measure in June have been cited, along with margin pressures from a shift away from non-food products, increased logistics costs, and investments in MAKRO’s systems.
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Krungsri Securities is Neutral on CPALL’s outlook but highlights its strengths in expanding 7-Eleven margins through continual product innovation—including collaborations with renowned restaurants, chefs, and trending beauty and wellness items. This strategy lifts both average selling prices and gross margins.
While SSS growth in 3Q26 may still be pressured by government relief projects, historical performance indicates rapid recovery post-policy expiry. Lower domestic diesel prices—from THB 42/liter to THB 35/liter—are expected to reduce energy costs, further boosting convenience store margins and supporting profit growth in 2H26.
CPALL remains an attractive laggard in the sector, with core profit growth outpacing peers and a 2026F PER of 14.1x, 49% below its five-year average. Krungsri Securities sees this as an accumulation opportunity, with consensus target price at THB 61.50.
