Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on July 20, 2026, that the Thai stock market at the start of this week is expected to be volatile, driven by several key domestic and international factors to monitor.
The first factor is the ongoing release of 2Q26 financial results by the banking sector. TTB is set to report its earnings today, followed by major banks such as BBL, KBANK, KTB, SCB, and KKP throughout the week.
Mr. Pobchai explained that banking stocks have risen nearly 9% since the beginning of the month, fueled by expectations that earnings may have passed their trough and could rebound in the second half of the year, as well as optimism regarding a new investment cycle. However, stock prices have already priced in much of the positive outlook, as such investors should be wary of profit-taking after earnings announcements.
Furthermore, market participants will closely watch the earnings results of big-cap stocks, with SCC scheduled to release its report this Wednesday and DELTA announcing on Friday. The performance of these companies could add to index volatility due to their significant weight in the Thai benchmark index.
Second factor is the U.S. tariff measures, Mr. Pobchai added, with a current 10% tariff on Thai goods under Section 122, set to expire on July 24, 2026, before potentially moving to Section 301, which could raise the tariff to 12.5%. The Thai negotiation team is working to maintain the tariff at 10%, as several regional peers such as Cambodia, Malaysia, and Indonesia have managed to secure this rate. If Thailand faces a higher tariff than its competitors, it could impact the competitiveness of Thai exports.
Lastly, the escalating tensions in the Middle East remain a major risk factor, with U.S.-Iran relations deteriorating and no clear mediator yet. This situation raises concerns in the market about possible escalation and the resulting upward pressure on oil prices.
Based on these factors, InnovestX forecasts the SET Index to move within a resistance level of 1,650 points and a support level at 1,615 points this week. The index is expected to be volatile, driven by listed companies’ earnings, U.S. tariff measures, and the Middle East situation.
For SCC, 2Q26 earnings are projected to rise quarter-on-quarter and remain stable year-on-year. Despite the petrochemical business being affected by partial plant shutdowns, improved product spreads are anticipated to offset this. In 3Q26, earnings may recover as the petrochemical segment resumes normal operations. InnovestX has revised up SCC’s profit forecast and maintains a target price of THB 268 per share with a “Neutral” recommendation.
In terms of investment strategy, the Thai stock market has climbed considerably, tightening the index level. As such, Mr. Pobchai advised investors to gradually accumulate stocks when prices weaken, rather than chasing after rising prices.
For short-term speculative plays, upstream energy stocks such as PTTEP, which benefits from higher oil prices, are recommended. Refinery stocks, including TOP, BCP, and SPRC, are also favored, as higher refining margins support their prospects.
Petrochemical stocks such as PTTGC and IVL stand to gain from tighter supply and lower market volumes, potentially boosting sales prices and product spreads.
Additionally, big-cap laggard stocks that have underperformed the index—TU, MINT, BDMS, and MTC—are recommended, as investment flows may rotate into these underperforming stocks.
