Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) expects PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC) to deliver a robust financial performance in the second quarter of 2026, driven by significant improvements across its olefins and aromatics units. While the refining segment provided the main earnings boost in 1Q26, the securities firm predicts that olefins and aromatics will lead in 2Q26.
KKPS forecasts a core net profit after tax (NPAT) of THB 14 billion for 2Q26, up sharply from THB 5.9 billion in 1Q26 and contrasting with the quarterly loss average of THB 2.7 billion seen in 2025. However, reported 2Q26 NPAT is projected at THB 9.4 billion, slightly lower due to a THB 1.8 billion provision for mothballing the polyols operation, a THB 2.3 billion stock loss/NRV, and a THB 707 million hedging loss. The analyst firm believes the strong first half-year performance could prompt a significant earnings upgrade for the company.
Despite government intervention reducing the gross refining margin (GRM) by approximately $4 per barrel, PTTGC is expected to achieve a GRM of $16.5 per barrel in 2Q26, nearly matching the previous quarter’s $16.7 per barrel. A higher crude premium (+$15 per barrel quarter-on-quarter) is predicted to be fully offset by a spike in middle distillate crack (+$21 per barrel QoQ). The company’s refining unit run rate decreased from 103% in the first quarter to 96% in the second quarter, impacted by a diesel export ban.
Refining EBITDA is estimated at THB 8 billion (36% of total EBITDA), while Olefins EBITDA is projected to rise sharply to THB 7.9 billion (35% of total EBITDA), lifted by strong HDPE pricing and resilient volume. Aromatics EBITDA is also expected to surprise on the upside, with higher condensate residual (CR) spreads boosted by a spike in diesel cracks, contributing THB 3.2 billion (14% of total EBITDA).
While 3Q26 may not match the record highs of the previous quarter, KKPS sees operational momentum progressing better than previously anticipated. Rising oil prices should help mitigate pressure from declining olefins spreads. The broker maintains its “Buy” call for PTTGC with a target price of THB 45.60, citing attractive valuation and strong earnings growth prospects for 2026.
