CLSA wrote in its analysis that Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) reported a robust 2Q26 net profit of THB 12.2 billion (THB 8.3 EPS), marking a 99% increase quarter-on-quarter and surpassing market consensus by 31%. This surge was primarily driven by strong performances in the refinery, marketing, and upstream E&P segments.
The refinery business reported a gross refining margin of $18.4 per barrel, slightly down from $18.6 in 1Q26, with the Bangkok Refinery and BSRC posting GRMs of $23 and $14.8 per barrel, respectively. Utilisation rates stood at 93%, a slight decrease due to government-imposed export bans. BCP recorded a stock loss of THB 141 million in 2Q26, compared to a THB 7.5 billion stock gain in the previous quarter.
The marketing segment posted a mixed performance, with sales volumes declining 14% quarter-on-quarter. However, this was offset by a higher net marketing margin of THB 1.26 per litre, resulting in an 81% increase in EBITDA to THB 2.8 billion. OKEA, BCP’s upstream asset, experienced a strong quarter, with rising liquid and gas prices boosting EBITDA by 64% quarter-on-quarter to THB 7.1 billion.
Notably, group EBITDA rose 46% quarter-on-quarter to THB 26 billion in 2Q26, while net profit during the second quarter suggests a significant turnaround from the THB 855 million loss reported in the same period last year. Looking ahead, the company is anticipated to continue strong momentum in 3Q26, with robust GRM levels estimated at $22 per barrel in July, factoring in ex-refinery price cut by the government.
BCP commenced commercial production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in May. The SAF-UCO spread remains favourable at $1.07 per litre, well above the breakeven point, and SAF contributed THB 1 billion in EBITDA during 2Q26, already meeting the company’s full-year forecast.
Given stronger earnings visibility for the second half of 2026, CLSA has revised GRM assumptions for 2026-2028 up to $18, $12, and $12, and raised earnings estimates by 472%, 138%, and 67%, respectively. The brokerage maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating on BCP, with a price target increasing to THB 60.00 from THB 43.00, implying a 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3x.
