CLSA has maintained its “Outperform” rating on PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC) and raised its target price to Bt46.00 from Bt43.00, citing solid second-quarter earnings and strong momentum expected to continue into the second half of 2026.
The share price of PTTGC rose 2.6% to THB 38.25 per share at the morning session on Monday, August 10, 2026.
PTTGC reported a second-quarter 2026 net profit of Bt12.2bn, sharply higher than the Bt3.2bn profit recorded in the first quarter, driven by strength across all business units. The result beat CLSA’s and consensus estimates by 14% and 48%, respectively.
The refining business led the strong performance, posting a solid gross refining margin (GRM) of US$15.6 per barrel, only slightly down from US$16.7 in the prior quarter, as government price cuts also affected olefins and aromatics. This pushed upstream business adjusted EBITDA up 18% quarter-on-quarter to Bt15.2bn.
Polymers and chemicals also swung to an adjusted EBITDA of Bt5.1bn from a Bt126m loss in the first quarter, while performance chemicals improved with EBITDA of Bt4.0bn, up 69% quarter-on-quarter, led by improving spreads. PTTGC booked a Bt1.9bn net realizable value (NRV) loss and a Bt1.8bn impairment loss from polyols during the quarter. Net profit came in at Bt12.2bn (Bt2.5 EPS), compared with Bt3.2bn profit in the first quarter and a Bt3.6bn loss a year earlier.
CLSA expects refining to remain the key earnings driver in the second half of 2026, supported by a healthy GRM estimated at US$18 per barrel in July, though it expects a softer contribution from petrochemicals as prices have eased. Management has guided for no impairment loss in the third quarter.
The brokerage also highlighted synergies from PTTGC’s joint venture study with SCC, scheduled for completion in September. The merged company would become the largest in ASEAN and rank among the top 10 globally in polyolefins by nameplate capacity, combining PTTGC’s strong upstream assets and diversified feedstock with SCC’s downstream businesses to shift the portfolio toward higher-value-added products.
CLSA raised its GRM assumptions for 2026-2028 from US$7.0-8.0-8.0 per barrel to US$15.0-9.0-9.0 per barrel, lifting earnings estimates by 52%, 5%, and 3% respectively. The brokerage rolled forward its price-to-book valuation, raising the target price to Bt46.00, implying a 9.0x 2027CL price-to-earnings ratio.
