On Monday at 11:11 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) rose by 2.73% or THB 1.50 to THB 56.50, with a trading value of THB 650.45 million.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) noted that CBG reported a net profit of THB 736 million for 2Q26, representing a 20.5% increase from the previous quarter but an 8% decrease from the same period last year. This performance exceeded expectations from both Finansia and the market, primarily due to stronger-than-expected revenues and improved gross margins.
The company’s total revenues reached THB 5.83 billion, the highest in six quarters, rising by 9.6% quarter-on-quarter and 4.5% year-on-year. While international revenues fell by 31.4% year-on-year, mainly because of an absence of revenue from Cambodia, strong growth in domestic sales offset the decline.
Domestic revenue grew by 7.1% compared to the previous quarter and 16.9% year-on-year, boosted by energy drink sales, increased orders from OEM customers such as the Loveza brand, and record alcohol distribution revenues of THB 2.6 billion. International revenues showed signs of recovery for the third consecutive quarter, increasing by 23.5% quarter-on-quarter, with notable gains in Myanmar, the UK, and the Middle East.
CBG’s gross margin improved to 26.4% in the second quarter, up from 25.9% in the first quarter, but remained below the 27.4% achieved a year earlier. Packaging costs pressured the branded energy drinks segment’s gross margin slightly, but this segment still provides the highest margin and continues to grow, contributing 52.2% to total revenue, up from 49% in the previous quarter.
Expenses remained under control, with the SG&A-to-sales ratio falling to 10.9%, compared to 11.7% in the first quarter, though it was marginally higher than last year. The increase was primarily due to an accounting reclassification of depreciation expenses during periods of lower production capacity utilization.
For the first half of 2026, CBG reported a net profit of THB 1.35 billion, down 13.7% from the previous year, accounting for 51% of the full-year profit estimate.
Finansia forecasts profit growth for the third quarter, anticipating it will be the first quarter to record year-on-year growth since Cambodian revenue normalized. The company has resumed energy drink promotions in convenience stores. Alcohol sales are expected to continue their positive trend, and OEM revenues should grow further with expanded sales channels.
The brokerage estimates CBG’s 2027 net profit in the THB 3.2-3.3 billion range, with a price target of THB 63-70 per share for 2027. In addition, CBG has declared an interim dividend of THB 1.00 per share for the first half of 2026, equivalent to a payout ratio of 74% and a yield of 1.8%.
Similarly, Yuanta Securities (Thailand) wrote that CBG’s normalized profit for 2Q26 was THB 736 million, up 20.5% QoQ but down 8% YoY, exceeding expectations in the range of THB 630-650 million. Domestic operations delivered robust growth both QoQ and YoY, while international business continued its QoQ recovery despite still recording a YoY decline from a high base last year.
Yuanta expects normalized profit to remain stable or grow modestly, with the company anticipated to return to YoY growth in the second half of 2026 in the range of THB 650-700 million. The brokerage has raised its normalized profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5.4% and 1.3% to THB 2,712 million (-4.4% YoY) and THB 3,124 million (+15.2% YoY), respectively, reflecting improved assumptions for net profit margin due to better-than-expected cost and expense management.
Following these, Yuanta notes further upside potential for the 2027 profit estimate. The firm has adopted a new target price for 2027 at THB 70.00 per share, offering a potential 27.3% upside from the current price, and maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation.
