Pi Securities wrote in its analysis, summarizing key takeaways from the recent earnings call of Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA). The company reported that total advance bookings between September and December 2026 declined by 1% year-on-year.
This decrease stemmed in part from changing consumer behavior, which now favors closer-to-date flight bookings, making long-term booking data less indicative of real demand. Notably, advance bookings for Samui routes in September rose by over 12%, compared to a 6% increase reported in May.
Bangkok Airways plans to gradually receive ten new ATR72-600 aircraft, with deliveries starting from the fourth quarter of 2026. The delivery schedule includes two aircraft in 4Q26, two in the first half of 2027, another two in the second half of 2027, and four in 2028.
Hedging for jet fuel prices has been executed for approximately 30% of expected usage in the second half of 2026 at an average price of $80 per barrel for Jet A1.
For the full year 2026, BA maintains its targets: 4.3 million total passengers (2.1 million in 1H26), an available seat kilometers output of 3.3 billion (1H26: 1.602 billion), and average fare per passenger at THB 4,200 (1H26: THB 4,292). The passenger load factor target remains at 80% (1H26: 81%).
Regarding 2Q26, the company raised ticket prices only modestly (4% year-on-year) due to sales being made in advance and fare caps stipulated by regulatory authorities. Increased administrative expenses during the period were attributed to higher ticket booking fees, IT system costs, and staff retirement expenses.
To handle rising fuel costs, BA has increased usage of turboprop aircraft—which have lower average fuel consumption than jet engines—particularly on primary routes such as Samui. The turboprop-to-jet ratio stood at 44:56 in the first half of 2026, up from a normal average of 35:65.
Entering 3Q26, which marks the high season for Samui, the brokerage expects BA to see a recovery from the second quarter. Advance bookings in September rose over 12% year-on-year, reflecting the trend. Passenger volume in August (from August 1–18) averaged 10,856 per day, up 4% year-on-year, compared to 9,962 per day in July and around 7,700 per day in 2Q26.
BA’s yearly targets remain unchanged, leading Pi Securities to make small adjustments based on management’s forecasts. The new projected net profit is THB 3,142 million (-12% year-on-year). With the high season supporting a significant earnings recovery in 3Q26, the analyst maintains a ‘Buy’ rating and revises the target price to THB 22.40 per share (15x PER for 2026 estimates).
