KGI Securities (Thailand) projects Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) will deliver a substantial dividend boost in 2026, targeting a dividend per share of THB 5.30. This figure represents a 405% surge from THB 1.05 per share in 2025.
The improvement is attributed to an anticipated record profit of THB 31.4 billion this year, assuming a 25% payout ratio. Meanwhile, management has reaffirmed a minimum dividend policy of 30% of net profit, subject to economic conditions, available cash flow, and investment plans.
BCP has also initiated a share repurchase program worth up to THB 3.8 billion between 2025 and 2028. The first tranche, amounting to THB 1.1 billion, was completed between December 16, 2025, and June 15, 2026. Both dividend growth and share buybacks are expected to improve shareholder returns, supported by strong earnings and conservative capital expenditure.
KGI Securities forecasts BCP’s third-quarter 2026 profit to soften quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to narrowing refinery margins resulting from higher crude premiums, increased insurance, and rising freight expenses.
While market gross refining margins at Phra Khanong and Sriracha refineries are expected to decrease, product spreads for gasoline, jet oil, and diesel were robust, recorded at $30/bbl, $62.3/bbl, and $67.8/bbl, respectively, in the third quarter. Crude run is projected to drop by 2–6% QoQ to 260–270 KBD, attributed to near-full storage following the diesel export ban implemented since March.
Furthermore, BCP’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) project, with the company holding an 80% stake, is expected to see quarterly earnings nearly double, following its commercial launch in May.
As a result, Bloomberg consensus shows a Buy/Hold/Sell split of 19/2/0 for BCP, with an average target price of THB 53.50 as of August 25. The outlook is bolstered by expected strong refinery margins, an attractive forecast dividend yield of 10.3% for 2026, and increasing contributions from the SAF project.
Among refinery stocks, KGI expresses the strongest preference for BCP, ahead of Star Petroleum Refining (SET: SPRC) and Thai Oil (SET: TOP).
