On Friday at 10:54 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) surged 3.56% or THB 0.80 to THB 23.30, with a trading value of THB 1.47 billion.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) anticipates that IVL will benefit from positive sentiment surrounding Venezuela’s potential decision to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as reported by Bloomberg. This development is viewed as supportive for the oil supply outlook.
In the second half of 2026, IVL’s normalized profit is projected to grow year-on-year, driven by reduced oversupply as a result of disruptions to crude supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, IVL is trading at a 2026 price-to-book value of approximately 1x, which remains below the company’s long-term average. Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for the stock, with a target price of THB 28.00 for 2027.
According to a Bloomberg report, Venezuela, one of the world’s major oil producers, is considering withdrawing from OPEC. As Venezuela is currently exempt from OPEC’s production cut quotas due to its domestic economic crisis, the country could see its oil sector unlocked by such a policy shift. By exiting the group, Venezuela would be able to freely increase or decrease its oil production without being bound by long-term quota agreements. This could pave the way for greater participation from multinational oil companies, particularly those from the United States, in efforts to revitalize Venezuela’s energy sector.
While Venezuela’s withdrawal may not immediately impact global oil prices—given its current production capacity of about 1.16 million barrels per day, roughly half the level of 2016—the move is expected to weaken OPEC’s bargaining power.
In Krungsri’s view, this could cause crude oil prices to fluctuate and potentially trend downward in the near future due to the anticipated rise in Venezuelan oil supply. The situation is viewed as a positive for anti-commodity stocks, such as power producers (GULF, GPSC), construction material companies, petrochemical firms (IVL, SCC), and refineries like TOP. Particularly, TASCO is expected to benefit significantly from reduced policy risk.
