Thailand’s investor confidence index stood in “very bullish” territory at 165.89 for the three-month outlook through November 2026, with foreign investor sentiment reaching a survey record, according to the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO).
FETCO Chairman Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn said the August 24 – 31 survey identified capital inflows as the strongest confidence driver, followed by listed-company earnings and government stimulus. Domestic politics was the main drag, ahead of trade wars and international conflicts.
Foreign investor confidence rose 20% to 200, its highest level since the survey began. Domestic institutional sentiment increased 4.2% to 131.58, while proprietary trading confidence declined 6.7% to 155.56; both remained “bullish.” Retail confidence fell 1.4% to 117.80, in the “neutral” range.
Transportation was the most attractive sector, followed by tourism and petrochemicals. Media was the least attractive, followed by printing materials and automotive.
The SET Index ended August at 1,595.16 points, down 1.75% month-on-month, with average daily trading value of THB 75.05 billion. Foreign investors sold a net THB 24.68 billion during the month, although year-to-date net purchases remained at THB 51.18 billion.
Paiboon maintained a year-end SET target of 1,700 points and a short- to medium-term upward outlook. He expected continued foreign inflows could lift cumulative net purchases to THB100 billion again, supported by confidence in government stability, public investment policies and Thailand’s perceived neutrality.
He said earnings growth, rather than valuation, would drive the market’s next phase. Aggregate listed-company profits exceeded THB 400 billion in the second quarter of 2026, a record, following more than THB 350 billion in the first quarter. Analysts had raised their earnings-per-share forecasts for the year, reflecting a clearer recovery.
However, sustained foreign investment would require concrete, long-term economic restructuring. Global supply-chain shifts were also supporting investment into Thailand, he said.
Investors are monitoring Federal Reserve policy amid increased expectations of a September rate increase, alongside the yen and Bank of Japan policy. Prolonged Middle East tensions, additional sanctions on Iran and pressure on its trading partners remain risks to energy supplies and oil prices.
Domestic watchpoints include the second-half economic recovery, stimulus implementation, the fiscal 2027 budget and the impact of U.S. trade measures on exports and supply chains. Political uncertainties include investigations into Senate selection allegations and the ballot-barcode case, with a Constitutional Court ruling scheduled for September 28, 2026.
Paiboon also warned that Thailand’s investment ambitions must be matched by stronger domestic savings.
The government aims to raise investment from 23% to 30% of GDP, while domestic savings have fallen from a historical level of 36% to 25%. He warned that this mismatch could produce a current-account deficit equivalent to 5% of GDP, exceeding the 3% threshold he described as safe.
Greater dependence on short-term foreign capital could leave Thailand vulnerable to sudden withdrawals and risks reminiscent of the 1997 financial crisis, he said.
FETCO proposed raising domestic savings to 28% of GDP through four measures, to be submitted through a subcommittee of the Joint Public and Private Sector Consultative Committee:
- Introduce Thailand individual saving account (TISA), with a Cabinet proposal expected in September.
- Make provident funds mandatory, replacing the voluntary approach.
- Develop flexible trust laws and a family-office ecosystem to support Thai and foreign family wealth management and attract global savings.
- Offer a temporary two-year income-tax exemption for overseas investments and profits repatriated to Thailand, provided all funds are invested in Thai equities and held for at least one year.
