Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on September 9, 2026, stated that key factors for investors to monitor in the near term include the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran and the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, domestic political news has begun to emerge, but does not yet warrant heavy strategic weight.
The U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to be prolonged as both sides lack clear common ground for negotiations, keeping oil prices elevated and threatening to push up production costs and future inflation.
Although the recent surge in oil prices may not be priced in this week’s U.S. inflation figures, such elevated levels will likely manifest in the subsequent data. For next week’s Fed meeting, the consensus expects interest rates to remain unchanged, but future rate hikes remain possible if inflation remains above the 2% target.
Mr. Chaiyot noted that if interest rates re-enter an upward cycle, it will create a headwind for risk assets and stock markets by raising funding costs and dampening economic growth.
Despite global monetary tightening concerns, the Thai stock market benefits from positive domestic policy catalysts, particularly Thailand’s new power development plan (PDP 2026), which received favorable public feedback without significant opposition. Additionally, the expanded “Thai Tiew Thai Plus” tourism stimulus program set for late 2026 will support Q4 spending and consumption-related names.
In the power plant sector, KSS recommends GULF and GPSC for their capacity to benefit from PDP 2026 and their strong capital bases, with GPSC gaining an extra boost from potential IPP license extensions.
In the petrochemical space, SCC is highlighted following significant profit growth driven by a strategic shift toward higher-margin products. If Middle East tensions persist, petrochemical spreads are expected to remain elevated through at least the end of 2026 as buyers accelerate advance orders. KSS maintains an “Accumulative Buy” rating on SCC with a target price of THB 315 baht.
Conversely, KSS advises caution on sectors heavily exposed to fuel costs, such as airlines and logistics, due to margin pressure if cost increases cannot be passed to consumers. The finance sector also faces headwinds from rising U.S. and Thai bond yields, which elevate borrowing costs and contribute to its recent underperformance against the SET Index.
