Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on September 7, 2026, that the Thai stock market today may potentially move sideways-down or consolidate, with negative factors weighing more heavily than positive ones. This aligns with regional bourse trends, particularly in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which declined, while markets opening in positive territory registered only slight gains.
A key factor stemmed from oil prices rebounding after falling sharply late last week, before an attack on a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline that forced operations to shut down. Consequently, the market returned to worrying about oil supply conditions, pushing prices to recover and putting pressure on investment sentiment once again.
At the same time, investors are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on September 15 – 16, with market participants placing an almost 90% probability on a Fed interest rate hike.
Regarding domestic factors, the key issue centers on the Election Commission’s (EC) consideration of collusion in the Senate selection process, which is expected to gain clarity this afternoon. InnovestX evaluates three possible outcomes: referring all cases to the Supreme Court, referring only specific individuals with clear evidence, or not referring the case to the Supreme Court at all.
In this regard, InnovestX assigned the most weight to the scenario where the EC refers only specific individuals for adjudication. Should this occur, the impact on the stock market is estimated to be relatively mild, as subsequent procedures will take time; nevertheless, this issue could create short-term volatility, especially after the resolution is announced.
For the overall trend of the Thai stock market this week, InnovestX divided it into two halves. During the first half, from today through Wednesday, the SET Index is expected to drift gradually downward as investors await the Fed meeting outcome and monitor domestic political developments.
In the second half of the week, from Thursday through Friday, the market has a chance to recover as expectations of a Fed rate hike have already been substantially priced in. If the Fed raises rates as anticipated, pressure may occur only briefly before the index rebounds, whereas if the Fed delivers a surprise by holding rates steady, it would add upside potential and trigger buying interest back into the market.
The brokerage noted that beyond interest rate directions, investors should closely monitor the Fed Dot Plot. If the Dot Plot remains close to previous projections—such as signaling one more rate hike toward the end of this year and maintaining rates next year—the market is not expected to react too negatively, as this scenario is already partially priced in.
However, if the Dot Plot signals a more hawkish stance than expected—such as indicating a likelihood of more than one rate hike—the market might find relief only in the short term before concerns over monetary policy direction resurface ahead of the next Fed meeting in October, potentially limiting the recovery of risk assets going forward.
As for investment strategy, InnovestX recommends focusing on a “Selective Buy” approach by choosing stocks with individual positive catalysts. Attractive sectors include energy, refineries, and shipping, which stand to benefit from oil prices and freight rates remaining at high levels; recommended stocks include PTT, PTTEP, BCP, TOP, SPRC, PSL, and TTA.
At the same time, for investors seeking to reduce risk, defensive and laggard stocks are recommended, particularly the hospital sector, which enters its high season in Q3 and faces relatively limited impact from political issues; selected stocks include BCH and CHG.
Stocks that have lagged behind the broader market but demonstrate growth potential in the second half of the year—both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter—are also recommended, including AP, MTC, TIDLOR, SAWAD, and HMPRO.
