On Monday at 11:29 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) soared by 5.36% or THB 3.50 to THB 68.75, with a trading value of THB 1.79 billion.
Liberator Securities stated that Thai Oil continues to offer speculative opportunities in line with the upward trend in gross refining margins and rising oil prices. However, the company’s performance in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to decline in accordance with a decrease in GRM, further pressured by additional ex-refinery price adjustments.
On a positive note, a recent site visit to the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) revealed significant progress. Once completed, the project is anticipated to enhance Thai Oil’s GRM by approximately $2 per barrel, positively contributing to future operations.
The CFP project, now 34.87% complete following a change in project management, is expected to begin partial operations with the CDU4 crude distillation unit in the second quarter of 2027. Full operational capability for the entire project is projected for the third quarter of 2028. This development will help reduce production costs.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) also wrote that Thai Oil is benefiting from tighter refined oil supplies and uncertainty surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict. The ongoing progress of the CFP further enhances the company’s profitability prospects, supporting an estimated 47–92% increase in postwar earnings compared to prewar levels.
As a result, the brokerage recommends a ‘Buy’ rating with a 2027 target price of THB 83.00, noting a price-to-book value of around 0.6–0.7x and an annual yield exceeding 3.5%.
