Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on September 21, 2026, that that the Thai stock market may potentially recover this week as major pressuring factors that caused market anxiety during the first half of the month become clearer, particularly the direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and Thailand’s credit rating assessment.
Regarding external factors, the latest Fed meeting was in line with market expectations, with an interest rate hike, while the central bank officials’ projections signaled one more rate increase during the remainder of 2026, helping ease some concerns over tighter-than-expected monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the key domestic positive factor came from Fitch Ratings, which revised Thailand’s credit rating outlook from Negative to Stable while affirming the credit rating at BBB+, which Mr. Pobchai noted helps support market sentiment at a time when new positive drivers are lacking and could help boost foreign investor confidence in Thai assets.
In addition, the Public Debt Management Office stated that Fitch cited key reasons including increased political stability, a continued economic expansion outlook, a manageable public debt status, strong external financial standing, and a credible macroeconomic policy framework. Fitch projects Thailand’s GDP to grow by 2.3% in 2026 and expects general government debt to remain below 63% of GDP by fiscal year 2028.
Mr. Pobchai assessed that these factors will help alleviate foreign investors’ concerns regarding the Thai stock market and provide support for the SET Index to recover this week, eyeing resistance around 1,600 points with potential to test the 1,610 – 1,615 thresholds, while key support lies around 1,575 points.
As for international developments late in the week, market participants will monitor the meeting between the U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept 24, 2026, with Mr. Pobchai noting that positive progress in the discussions would further bolster investment sentiment. The meeting is scheduled to take place in Washington, with key topics covering trade, tariffs, technology, and AI.
Regarding the movement of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% as well as oil price volatility, Mr. Pobchai expressed that the Thai benchmark has already priced in part of these concerns, particularly the energy sector that did not surge sharply in tandem with oil prices earlier. Therefore, investors should place greater emphasis on domestic factors, while energy stocks are suitable for short-term trading and warrant increased caution.
Regarding investment strategy, InnovestX recommends laggard stocks and domestic economy-focused shares (domestic play) due to lower exposure to external risks. The first sector with a positive outlook is healthcare, which enters its high season in the third quarter and is expected to deliver strong earnings growth, with BH and PR9 selected as top picks.
Meanwhile, the commerce sector continues to be supported by the recovery of domestic purchasing power, with CRC among the recommended stocks. The banking sector is expected to benefit from improved confidence following Fitch’s Thailand outlook upgrade, as well as potential improvement in asset quality trends, with BBL and KBANK recommended.
Additionally, InnovestX remains positive on the financial sector due to prospects of potentially easing financial conditions, a recovery in agricultural income, and domestic purchasing power stimulus measures, which will help alleviate pressure on household debt burdens and asset quality, with recommended stocks including MTC, SAWAD, and TIDLOR.
