KGI Securities retained its Outperform recommendation on Minor International Public Company Limited (SET: MINT), with an unchanged 12-month target price of THB30, implying 39.5% upside from the September 29 closing price of THB21.50. The brokerage expects hotel revenue growth, stronger restaurant sales in Thailand and reduced financing expenses to support second-half earnings despite pressure on operating margins.
In its September 30 report, KGI projected modest quarter-on-quarter earnings improvement for the third quarter of 2026, alongside continued year-on-year growth.
The brokerage firm noted that MINT’s efforts to reduce debt remain an important earnings driver. Funding costs are projected to ease from 4.29% in 2025 to 4.1–4.2% this year through refinancing and asset disposals.
The company aims to complete European hotel disposals during the first half of 2027 under arrangements that allow it to continue managing the properties. All sale proceeds would go toward debt repayment. KGI expects management fees and interest savings to substantially compensate for the EBITDA relinquished through these transactions.
Perpetual bonds totalling THB13 billion in 2027 and THB10.5 billion in 2028 also offer refinancing opportunities. Their current financing cost of approximately 6% could fall below 5%, according to the report.
KGI’s third-quarter revenue per available room (RevPAR) outlook points to year-on-year growth of 20–30% in the Maldives, a mid-teens increase in Thailand and approximately 6% growth in Europe.
Bookings already secured for the fourth quarter indicate low-to-mid-single-digit RevPAR growth in Europe and mid-single-digit growth in Thailand. The Maldives is broadly unchanged from a year earlier.
Expansion through hotel management contracts is also progressing. MINT targets 50 new contracts in 2026, with 40 signed year-to-date, followed by 80 in 2027. These additions are intended to lift asset-light hotels from 30% of its portfolio currently to 50% by 2028.
KGI forecasts a 2026 EBITDA margin of 26%, compared with 28.9% in 2025 and 26.5% in the first half of this year, broadly matching management’s expectation of softer profitability.
Higher hotel labour expenses could absorb much of the benefit from RevPAR growth. Energy exposure is less concerning because MINT has hedged its 2026 requirements and 45–70% of those for 2027. Restaurant margins are expected to hold steady as revenue growth helps absorb increased raw-material and packaging costs.
KGI forecasts net profit of THB10.2 billion in 2026 and THB11.02 billion in 2027. It identifies a prolonged Middle East conflict and the resulting potential weakness in global travel demand as a key risk.
