Mr. Suwat Wattanapornprom, Director of the Research Division, Investment Strategy, at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in “Kaohoon” program on October 8, 2026, that the Thai stock market today is expected to move sideways. This comes despite investment sentiment across most Asian equity markets being pressured by rising bond yields, as well as concerns over inflation, debt burdens, and geopolitical conflicts.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose sharply during Wednesday intraday trading before trimming gains. Treasury auction results showing stronger demand from foreign central banks helped contain the increase, suggesting some institutional investors see current yields as increasingly attractive.
Investors should monitor U.S. Consumer Price Index data due mid-next week and geopolitical developments, Mr. Suwat said. Regarding questions over the accuracy of Thailand’s foreign fund flow data, he advised awaiting inspection findings and continuing to use existing reporting standards rather than drawing premature negative conclusions.
KSS sees growing interest in November’s MSCI index review, with Thailand’s market recovery easing pressure from potential weighting downgrades.
THAI could re-enter the MSCI index if its share price rises to around THB 6, Mr. Suwat stated, as its free-float-adjusted market capitalization has already cleared the preliminary threshold.
PTTGC, currently in the MSCI Small Cap Index, could move into the MSCI Global Standard Index following continued share price improvement. Even assuming a market capitalization requirement roughly 50% above the normal threshold, a price near THB 50 could give it a chance of qualifying.
Progress toward a joint venture with the Siam Cement Group also supports PTTGC’s outlook, the analyst added. Once transaction details become clear, KSS sees potential upside of approximately THB 7–9 to its base value, potentially prompting earnings model revisions.
Several refinery stocks have entered technically overbought territory after sharp gains, potentially slowing short-term momentum, according to the brokerage. However, low global crude oil and refined product inventories relative to historical averages underpin the sector’s medium- to long-term appeal.
A restocking cycle initially expected to last about six months could extend to one or two years, supporting refining margins and earnings. Potential easing of oil export restrictions would also benefit refiners, although KSS places greater emphasis on restocking.
For swine and poultry operators, abundant feed raw material supplies, particularly corn, should limit cost pressures over the next three to six months. Sector shares have also corrected from last year’s highs. However, Super El Niño remains a risk that could push raw material and feed costs higher.
Foreign investors remain concerned about flooding, with selling pressure increasing after localized flooding in Bangkok in late September.
Rainfall during October 11–14 warrants monitoring. Preliminary estimates of approximately 100 millimeters compare with around 300 millimeters of cumulative rainfall in late September, suggesting a manageable situation if precipitation does not significantly exceed expectations.
The SET Index has fallen nearly 3% from its previous peak amid flood concerns, indicating some risk is already priced in. Manageable conditions could revive interest in domestic-oriented stocks, particularly banks that have lagged the broader market.
KSS recommends KTB for domestic exposure, WHA for foreign investment attraction trends and investor confidence building, and BCH for anticipated increases in Social Security medical service fees.
