Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) expects Krungthai Card Public Company Limited (SET: KTC) to post a net profit growth of 12% year-on-year in 3Q26 and a slight 2% decline quarter-on-quarter, mainly attributed to reduced bad-debt recoveries.
The brokerage noted that underlying business momentum remains solid, with credit card spending up nearly 5% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2026. Expenses from the implementation of a new core system are expected to have a limited impact on profits. The projected 3Q26 results would bring KTC’s profit for the first nine months of 2026 to 75% of the full-year estimate.
KKPS sees KTC’s funding profile as relatively resilient despite concerns over rising bond yields, with the two-year yield nearing 1.4% compared to the 1.0% policy rate. KTC is expected to be less exposed to such risks thanks to its “AA” credit rating and diversified funding sources.
Bank borrowings now comprise 37% of KTC’s funding, up from below 30% in 3Q24, aided by KTB access and available short-term and long-term credit lines totaling THB 34.4 billion. Refinancing high-cost legacy debentures is also expected to provide further funding cost relief.
On asset quality, KKPS forecasts the non-performing loan ratio to rise quarter-on-quarter to 1.83%, though recent flooding is expected to have an insignificant impact. Credit costs should remain low at 4.94% versus 5.0% in the first half of 2026, while loan loss reserve coverage of 433% provides ample cushion against potential deterioration.
KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on KTC, with a target price of THB 43.00 per share, citing defensive characteristics such as resilient earnings, a strong provisioning buffer, and relatively low sensitivity to rising bond yields.
