Barclays expects a possible merger announcement involving Tesla and SpaceX within the next six to 12 months, with timing potentially tied to Tesla’s 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders. The firm said investor attention is likely to focus on shareholder approval, deal structure and Elon Musk’s control of the combined business.
Under corporate law requirements cited by Barclays, Tesla must hold its AGM by December 6. The firm said an announcement in late October or early November remains possible, although that schedule would make it harder to secure approval at the meeting itself.
Barclays also outlined a second scenario in which the transaction is unveiled outside the AGM process. In that case, the calendar would be less certain, but the firm still expects any announcement to come within six to 12 months, allowing a potential closing during the Trump administration.
Expectations for a tie-up between Musk’s two largest companies have grown among analysts and investors, particularly after SpaceX completed a record initial public offering in 2026. Bloomberg News reported in January that SpaceX had considered a Tesla merger before choosing instead to acquire xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence company.
Barclays said the financial benefits of combining the businesses would exist, but the larger strategic rationale would come from integrating their AI operations. The firm said a merger would bring together Tesla’s real-world AI programs, including Robotaxi and Optimus, with SpaceX-linked virtual AI assets such as Grok and Macrohard.
The two companies already have multiple commercial links. SpaceX has bought more than $100 million of Tesla Cybertrucks, while xAI is a significant buyer of Tesla’s utility-scale battery products. Tesla and SpaceX also share overlapping investor bases and are both led by Musk.
Barclays pointed to Terafab as another area of cooperation. The semiconductor project is expected to produce chips for Tesla electric vehicles, robotaxis and Optimus robots, along with a separate chip designed for SpaceX’s orbital AI satellites. The firm also cited SpaceX’s planned space data centers as part of the broader technology overlap.
Control considerations are another factor. Barclays said a combination would support Musk’s long-running aim to hold a level of influence at Tesla that he views as sufficient for advancing AI and robotics. Musk owns about 48% of SpaceX and controls around 82% of its voting rights through a dual-class share structure. If SpaceX were to acquire Tesla, Barclays estimates Musk would own roughly 37% of the merged company and retain about 56% voting control.
The firm expects SpaceX to be the buyer in the deal, with an all-stock transaction seen as the most probable structure. Based on current market values of about $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla, Barclays calculates an exchange ratio near 0.7 SpaceX shares for each Tesla share, before any expected premium for Tesla investors.
Barclays said SpaceX’s dual-class equity framework makes it better positioned to act as acquirer, while also allowing Musk to preserve majority voting power. The largest obstacle, according to the firm, would be securing approval from shareholders at both companies.
The boards are not expected by Barclays to prevent a transaction, though the deal would still require shareholder votes and antitrust review. The firm said the current administration provides a more favorable setting for such a combination.
