KGI Securities (Thailand) expects Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) to report a record-high net profit of THB 9.6 billion in 3Q26, representing a significant increase of 509% year-on-year and 39% quarter-on-quarter.
This performance is mainly attributed to an anticipated net stock gain (including NRV) of THB 6.5 billion, compared to a gain of THB 479 million in 3Q25 and a loss of THB 319 million in 2Q26, as Dubai crude prices climbed from $79 per barrel in June 2026 to $113 per barrel in September 2026. The company’s crude run is also expected to rise 4% quarter-on-quarter to 155 KBD.
Despite the strong performance, the brokerage projects a 37% quarter-on-quarter decline in SPRC’s market gross refining margin to $15 per barrel, reflecting a 6% drop in the jet oil spread and a sharp 70% increase in freight rates from the Middle East to Thailand. The market GRM, however, is still expected to remain robust.
KGI has raised its 2026 earnings forecast for SPRC by 4% to THB 21.4 billion, citing stronger refinery margins with an increased market GRM assumption of $15.4 per barrel and higher spreads for jet fuel and diesel. The 2027 earnings forecast remains unchanged at THB 6.9 billion.
Following these, the 2027 target price is raised to THB 16.00, up from THB 15.00, based on a higher adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple. KGI forecasts attractive dividend yields of 11.3% for 2026 and 5.7% for 2027, maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating on SPRC due to robust near-term earnings and strong shareholder returns.
