Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has significantly raised its forecast for the global memory technology market, predicting the total addressable market for DRAM and NAND sales will surge to $2 trillion by 2030, up from its previous estimate of $1.8 trillion. This outlook suggests a 10-fold increase from peak sales in 2018 and 2025, driven by robust artificial intelligence demand and constrained global supply.
KKPS’ forecast rests on five factors: memory’s annual run-rate surpassed $1 trillion in 3Q26; average selling prices rose 3-4 times year-on-year in 2026, far outpacing volume growth; limited price cuts are expected through 2030; bit growth is anticipated to remain in the high teens annually; and the mix will continue to improve with advanced AI solutions such as HBM and SOCAMM gaining share. Memory content per device is projected to rise significantly, with DRAM+NAND sales expected to maintain a 21% CAGR from 2027 to 2030, indicating a long-term super-cycle.
Kiatnakin has also adjusted its ASP assumptions, reflecting stronger-than-expected pricing trends. Third-quarter DRAM prices have climbed 20-30% quarter-on-quarter, and NAND prices are up over 15%. With ongoing supply shortages and higher procurement efforts from OEMs and Big Tech, the firm now projects DRAM/NAND ASP increases of 8-12% and 2-3% respectively for 2027-28, followed by a soft landing in 2028 before renewed growth.
Industry momentum remains strong, according to the BofA Memory Indicator, which reached a record-high 180 in July. Sales and exports from major players in Korea and Taiwan continue robust year-on-year growth, with further bullish forecasts expected at upcoming industry conferences.
