According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand is expected to continue climbing until the end of the decade, even as consumption in China—currently the world’s biggest importer—peaks in 2027.
The IEA highlighted on Tuesday that although the rapid roll-out of electric vehicles and high-speed rail in China will curb demand there, continued reliance on gasoline and a slower shift to electric vehicles in the United States will sustain global oil use.
The Paris-based agency maintained its outlook that global oil demand will reach its zenith this decade, projecting a peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 before a slight decrease in 2030.
Production capacity is projected to rise in parallel, reaching 114.7 million bpd over the same period. This stands in contrast to OPEC’s more bullish forecast, which does not anticipate a peak in the foreseeable future.
Recent geopolitical tensions—such as the confrontation between Israel and Iran, which pushed oil prices up 5% to over $74 a barrel last Friday—underscore the vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Nevertheless, the IEA’s latest data suggests that global supplies should remain robust through 2030 in the absence of serious production disruptions.
China, having long been at the forefront of global oil demand growth, is expected to see that growth plateau as economic headwinds and a push toward cleaner transport take effect. The IEA expects the nation’s oil consumption in 2030 to be barely above levels seen in 2024.
Meanwhile, in the U.S.—the world’s top oil consumer—lower fuel prices and lagging electric vehicle adoption are supporting higher oil demand forecasts for 2030, now up by 1.1 million bpd from previous estimates.
U.S. President Donald Trump has urged OPEC to reduce oil prices and has moved to curb electric vehicle adoption, including endorsing legislation to block California’s EV sales mandates.
