Citigroup is forecasting an end to gold’s historic surge, predicting a reversal that could see prices dip below the $3,000-an-ounce mark in the coming quarters.
The investment bank now expects bullion to retreat toward $2,500–$2,700 an ounce by the second half of 2026—even as the yellow metal has delivered an eye-popping 30% rally this year.
The meteoric rise in gold, which clocked fresh all-time highs as recently as April, has been fueled by a cocktail of safe-haven buying amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including renewed Middle East conflict, and market jitters stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s disruptive trade agenda, as well as concerns surrounding the U.S. fiscal outlook.
However, Citigroup’s research suggests this rally is approaching exhaustion, with several headwinds on the horizon. The analyst projects that improving global growth prospects, moderating political risks, and a shift by the Federal Reserve from restrictive to more neutral monetary policy could all weigh on investment demand for gold starting in late 2025.
Citi’s base case—assigned a 60% probability—envisions gold holding above $3,000 over the next quarter before easing back.
There remains a 20% chance prices notch another record high on renewed tariff, geopolitical, or stagflation scares, but an equally likely scenario is a marked sell-off if trade tensions quickly subside.
Spot gold recently traded around $3,393 an ounce, with prices remaining volatile following President Trump’s call for evacuations in Tehran amid escalated Israel-Iran hostilities, leading to his abrupt exit from the latest Group of Seven summit.
Beyond gold, Citigroup struck an optimistic tone for other metals, highlighting bullish prospects for aluminum and copper. The bank cited the lightweight metal’s high sensitivity to global growth momentum and recovering investor sentiment as reasons for its upbeat outlook.
