JPMorgan has reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating on Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), highlighting the firm’s ambitious shift toward renewable energy and burgeoning digital ventures, following a virtual investor session with GULF’s President Ratthaphol Cheunsomchit during the ASEAN Energy & Utilities Forum.
Pivot to Renewables Drives Growth Trajectory
While GULF’s traditional gas-fired IPP operations in Thailand continue to provide robust internal rates of return (hovering in the mid-20% range), the company’s leadership outlined a strategic pivot to renewable energy. GULF is steering toward a target of approximately 40% renewable energy equity capacity by 2035, up sharply from an estimated 13% in June 2025. Capitalizing on domestic prospects in the next Power Development Plan (PDP) and opportunistic deals—illustrated by their recent 50% acquisition in Gunkul Solar—the company aims for “mid-teens” IRR from these ventures. Roughly 80% of GULF’s planned THB 90 billion capital expenditures between 2025 and 2029 will fund renewable expansion.
US Jackson Plant Earnings Set to Accelerate
GULF’s US-based Jackson power plant (in which the company holds a 49% stake) has yet to significantly impact profits since its acquisition in 2023. However, management expects that to change from the second half of 2025, as capacity payment rates increase starting in June 2025. Longer-term, GULF eyes sustained earnings growth from this asset amid a rise in gas power demand, propelled by the phaseout of coal plants and surging energy needs tied to data center growth in the US. Despite these international forays, the core focus remains on domestic expansion.
Strategic Moves in Digital Infrastructure
In parallel to its energy initiatives, GULF is also sharpening its focus on digital infrastructure, ramping up the construction of advanced tier 3+ data centers. The company is poised to deploy 25MW of capacity in the second quarter of 2025 as phase one, followed by another 25MW in subsequent expansions. Growth is also expected through partnerships such as ADVANC, with emphasis on subscriber growth across broadband and enterprise services. Meanwhile, GULF is taking an active role in revitalizing THCOM’s satellite operations, managing a new project that targets up to three satellites after over a decade of inactivity.
LNG Terminal Projects Bolster Value Chain
GULF’s ambitions extend to the downstream gas market, with a substantial investment of nearly THB 60 billion earmarked for Thailand’s third LNG terminal at Map Ta Phut, where GULF will maintain a 70% stake. Construction on the 8 million tonne per year terminal is scheduled for late 2025, with commercial operation set for the first quarter of 2029. The new terminal will offer a regulated alternative for LNG shippers in Thailand, aiming for an estimated 8.9% regulated return. In 2025, GULF plans to import about 70 LNG cargoes, or roughly 5 MTPA, generating about THB 7 million in profit per cargo, equating to around THB 500 million in total.
Corporate Developments and Strategic Outlook
Other notable points include: the company’s stake in KBANK is expected to stay below 5% due to regulatory complexity. GULF remains open to share buybacks if Singtel chooses to divest its 9% holding; and GULF’s investment capacity could reach THB 200 billion following the INTUCH amalgamation.
With a strong pipeline of expansion plans spanning renewables, digital and LNG infrastructure, JPMorgan views GULF as well positioned for robust future returns and sustained leadership in Thailand’s evolving energy landscape. The firm rates GULF “Overweight” with a target price at THB 64.00 per share.
