On August 14, Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI) will hold a board meeting to approve the company’s 2Q25 financial statement. Mr. Tan Passakornnatee, Chief Executive Officer of ICHI, informed ‘Kaohoon’ that the second quarter performance outlook is expected to show continuous growth. The company estimated that its sales revenue would increase by 25% from the previous quarter of THB 1.75 billion.
ICHI will record a one-off gain from the sale of its 72-rai plot of land in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province, worth THB 360 million. This transaction will contribute a THB 120 million one-time gain in 2Q25, which will be used to enhance cash flow and support dividend payments.
Analysts from Pi Securities expect ICHI to generate a net profit of THB 413 million in the second quarter, representing a 9% increase YoY, driven by THB 120 million revenue recognition generated from land sales. Excluding this one-off gain, normalized profit is anticipated to be at THB 317 million, showing a 10% decrease YoY but a 29% increase QoQ, as the sales of ready-to-drink green tea declined.
Sales of ready-to-drink green tea and herbal drinks are expected to decline by 9% and 26% YoY, respectively. Non-tea drinks are anticipated to grow as the alkaline waters’ sales surpass THB 100 million per quarter, with revenue recognition from original equipment manufacturers (OEM) reaching THB 190 million.
The analysts also expected that the 1H25 dividends would reach THB 0.50 – 0.60 per share, similar to last year’s. As for the 2025 net profit, the company is expected to generate an amount of THB 1.25 billion, representing a 4.3% decrease YoY.
Revenue generated from OEM should compensate for the negative factor that impacted the sales in the first quarter, as ICHI increased its production capacity to 1,700 million bottles per year, a 13% increase from the previous figure. Since orders from OEM customers continue to pour in, the analysts speculated that in the second quarter, the revenue recognized from these orders would reach THB 190 million, surpassing the forecast of THB 170 million per quarter in the second half of the year.
Contraction in the ready-to-drink green tea during 2Q25 marked the first decline in fourteen quarters. As the company’s primary revenue source, the segment shrank significantly in April and continued to decline for the rest of the quarter, affected by the weather conditions and consumer purchasing power. The analysts estimated that this year, the product’s sales would decline by 10%.
ICHI adjusted its strategy to address these negative factors and is currently reviewing its THB 9.5 billion revenue target for this year. The company continually increases the distribution channel through grocery stores by conducting marketing campaigns between April 1 – August 31 to boost the sales of its top products. Additionally, the company also increased its product sizes to meet the customer’s need for value.
Nonetheless, analysts expect ICHI’s profit to decline in the second half of the year compared to both the first half and the same period last year, due to seasonal factors, weather conditions, and weaker consumer purchasing power affecting green tea and herbal drink sales. While a potential rise in alkaline water sales and OEM revenue may provide some support, it is unlikely to fully offset the downturn.
Therefore, Pi Securities gives a “HOLD” rating on ICHI, with a base price of THB 11.50 per share.
