On July 30, Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,244.14 points, increasing 10.46 points or 0.85% with a trading value of THB 54.67 billion. Meanwhile, net sales from foreign investors were at THB 265 million.
Asia Plus Securities noted key factors contributed to the fund inflow in Thai stocks as follow:
1) Additional inflows into Thai and Asian markets follow the upward revision of the global GDP target by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), especially in Asian countries. Thailand’s GDP targets were raised from 1.8% to 2%. Moreover, the Thai baht has depreciated by 0.14% week-on-week, which is softer than the 1.3% strengthening U.S. dollar. These factors show that the fund is still flowing within the Thai market, with the prospect of additional foreign inflows.
2) Funding momentum shifted toward value stocks, particularly energy stocks, which was reflected by last week’s U.S. stock market movements. Outperforming U.S. stocks during the period includes energy stocks (6% increase), hospital stocks (2.2% increase), and industrial stocks (1.9% increase). These movements have become positive sentiments for Thai stocks as most of which are value stocks and have a commodity-driven segment making up about one third of the market.
3) Further inflows are expected in August, as Thai stocks may gain additional weight in the MSCI and FTSE indices (to be announced on August 12 and 22, respectively) after having surged 13.3% since last month, higher than the global stocks (MSCI ACWI Index), which only grew by 1.9%.
The securities firm recommended 10 stocks, which are stocks that are most purchased by foreign investors within the last 15 days for a total trading value of THB 19 billion. These include:
- Airports of Thailand PCL (SET: AOT) with a net purchase of THB 6.01 billion.
- CP All PCL (SET: CPALL), with a net purchase of THB 3.69 billion.
- Krungthai Card PCL (SET: KTC) with a net purchase of THB 2.20 billion.
- Kasikornbank PCL (SET: KBANK) with a net purchase of THB 2.05 billion.
- The Siam Cement PCL (SET: SCC) with a net purchase of THB 1.86 billion.
- Bangkok Bank PCL (SET: BBL) with a net purchase of THB 1.55 billion.
- Central Pattana PCL (SET: CPN) with a net purchase of THB 1.05 billion.
- Advanced Info Service PCL (SET: ADVANC) with a net purchase of THB 897 million.
- Thai Oil PCL (SET: TOP) with a net purchase of THB 866 million.
- Charoen Pokphand Foods PCL (SET: CPF) with a net purchase of THB 826 million.
Koraphat Vorachet, Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), noted a growing speculative buying force in industrial estate stocks such as WHA and AMATA, as the U.S.-Thai trade talks are reaching closer to conclusion, following comments from Pichai Chunhavajira, Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance.
Pichai expressed optimism in the proposal as recently President Donald Trump struck deals with various countries and has established a new baseline tariff at 15-20%. Furthermore, the president also disclosed through X social media that he will consider more amicable trade terms after Thailand has agreed to a ceasefire with Cambodia.
The securities firm recommends “Buy” on AMATA at a target price of THB 19 per share, and WHA at a target price of THB 4.2 per share.
Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of the Analytic Department at KSS, revealed that the SET Index rose more than 100 points in the first half of July, consistently bolstered by a net inflow of more than THB 10 billion from foreign investors, after details about the U.S. “Reciprocal Tariffs” became clearer. The Trump administration is expected to impose tariffs at 15-20%, a more competitive concession compared to Thailand’s regional rivals, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
In early 2025, there were consistent fund outflows from the Thai market. However, foreign investors have since pivoted back during the latter half of July at a net purchase of THB 800-1,200 million daily, causing the index to rebound and outperform its regional counterparts. This recovery came from easing concerns over U.S. tariff policies, as previously the baseline tariff was at 10%. Meanwhile, the rate has changed to an overall 15-20%, which is not overlapping with the previously announced tariffs, and projects a positive sentiment toward Thai firms’ competitiveness.
An outlook for the SET Index in 2025 is forecasted to reach the targeted 1,300-1,350 points, as the market has partially reflected the positive factor from the U.S. tariff policy. Domestic upside, particularly policy rate cutting, could also support fund inflows.
The securities firm recommends investors focus on stocks that have not hiked along the index, especially underperforming stocks with strong fundamentals, including hospital stocks, CPALL, and PTT, which are major stocks with remaining upside.
