Recently, B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) has restructured its management to support sustainable business expansion, with a main target of increasing production capacity to 10,000 megawatts (MW) by 2030 and achieving Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050.
Spotlight on BGRIM shares reveals that, over the past two months, the share price rose by 42.86%. When compared to the same industrial sector, it was up 24.24% and outperformed the SET Index by 18.18%. BGRIM later received an improved outlook and increased target price.
The driver for its recovery is expected to be the policy shift from directly reducing electricity costs to reducing costs through restructuring gas prices and supporting household solar rooftop installations.
Additional positive factors include declining electricity risks and gas prices, which are expected to improve the spark spread (difference between wholesale electricity price and natural gas cost) to around THB 1.29–1.41 per unit during 2025–2027. This benefits BGRIM, which sells 25% of its electricity directly to industrial users (IU).
BGRIM also plans to commence commercial operation (COD) for projects such as a 65 MW solar power plant in the Philippines (ARECO Project) and partial COD for the 100 MW Nakwol1 wind power project in South Korea by the end of 2025, as planned.
BGRIM is projected to have expanding profit margins in the second half of 2025, mainly driven by cogeneration plants. Currently, BGRIM has an installed capacity of 2.6 gigawatts (GWe), and about two-thirds of these came from natural gas-fired cogeneration plants.
Therefore, the gross profit margin (GPM) may rise to about 19–20% as the spark spread increases from the second half of 2025 onwards, supporting improved profit growth.
BGRIM has seen its target price and profit estimates upgraded. Krungsri Securities holds a positive outlook, raising its 2025–2027 projections by an average of 23%, expecting an average profit growth of 20% per year, and upgrading its recommendation to “Buy” from “Neutral” with a new target price of THB 16.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has increased its 2025–2026 profit forecasts by 11% and 19% to THB 1,819 million (down 18% year-on-year) and THB 2,072 million (up 14% YoY), respectively, backed by an upward revision of electricity price assumptions for Sept–Dec 2025 to THB 3.94 per unit (from THB 3.70) and for 2026 to THB 3.80 per unit. Recommendation is “Buy” with a 2025 year-end target price raised to THB 14.30.
Similarly, Kasikorn Securities has raised its 2025 profit forecast by 4% to THB 2.3 billion and 2026 by 10% to THB 2.7 billion, supported by higher profit contributions from subsidiaries and joint ventures (JV), exchange rate gains in 1H25, and the improved profit outlook for gas-fired power plants in 2026. The recommendation is “Buy,” with a target price of THB 15.
However, there are concerns about disputes relating to electricity payments for solar farms in Vietnam. Since early 2025, Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) has reduced payments for some renewable projects, citing lack of construction certificates, which may cause a 15–20% annual net profit loss. Nevertheless, company management maintains a positive outlook on upcoming negotiations.
BGRIM plans further expansion. In November, it will issue Blue Bonds in three tranches with three to ten-year maturities to major and institutional investors, to refinance debt and invest in offshore wind projects in South Korea.
