At 11:22 AM on Monday, October 6, 2025, shares of Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) stood at 4.78 baht, up 0.02 baht or 0.42% and shares of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) were at 36.25 baht, up 0.25 baht or 0.69%. Both shares settled higher by more than 1% last Friday.
TOP and SPRC share prices continued to rise following last Friday’s fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery in Los Angeles County, USA. This refinery, with a capacity of 290,000 barrels per day, mainly produces gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, and houses approximately 150 large tanks with a total storage capacity of 12.5 million barrels.
Kasikorn Securities noted that the El Segundo refinery, with a refining capacity similar to Thai Oil’s, produces 45% gasoline and 41% diesel. The event provides a positive sentiment for the refining sector and may boost the spread of refined oil prices, especially gasoline. TOP remains a top pick in the sector, with a “Buy” recommendation and a target price of 39.50 baht.
Trinity Securities stated that the fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery has raised concerns in the energy market. Although the fire has been contained in some areas and the cause is yet to be determined, the incident may impact the supply of refined oil products and put short-term pressure on prices and refining margins.
There is expected to be a positive sentiment for domestic refinery stocks, including Thai Oil, Star Petroleum, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP), and Bangchak Sriracha Public Company Limited (SET: BSRC), which may benefit from potentially higher refining spreads.
Krungsri Securities also commented that Chevron’s El Segundo refinery explosion is a positive for refinery stocks, emphasizing TOP with a target price of 32 baht.
Meanwhile, China is accelerating a shift towards higher value-added production to achieve a 5% annual increase in value, which may slow or moderately increase supply in the next 1-3 years. The focus on value and price growth is the main driving force. Tighter environmental regulations will limit the approval of new refining capacity over the next 2-3 years, restricting new supply in the market.
With a 55% trade tariff imposed on China, structural adjustments in the production sector are underway, including industry consolidation targeting a high value-added production structure. In this transitional period, higher tariffs will benefit PET product stocks with unique factors, notably Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL), a major PET producer in the US, which stands to gain from favorable trade tariffs, market expansion, and strategic collaborations expected to support demand and drive a recovery in spreads.
The anti-involution policy is becoming progressively clearer, with increasing market focus ahead of China’s Plenum 4th Conference after Golden Week. Strategically, a sector repositioning is expected. It is recommended to gradually accumulate stocks such as PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC), IVL, PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT), and Thai Oil alongside positive industry developments. This will support market confidence that the sector has passed its trough and will see a marked recovery in 2026.
