Tisco Securities has reaffirmed its BUY rating on CK Power Public Company Limited (SET: CKP), setting a target price of THB 3.68 per share, representing a 51% upside from the current market price of THB 2.44. The brokerage cites favorable water inflow conditions as a key factor that will drive significant earnings growth for CKP, especially in the third quarter of 2025.
According to Tisco’s latest report, CKP’s 3Q25 core profit is projected to surge, with net profits expected to reach THB 1,340 million—an increase of 12% year-on-year (YoY) and 120% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). This growth is attributed to enhanced electricity sales at Nam Ngum 2 (NN2) and the Xayaburi hydroelectric power plant, both benefiting from stronger water flow due to La Niña and seasonal factors. Specifically, electricity sales at NN2 are forecast to rise by 55% YoY and 93% QoQ, while profit contributions from Xayaburi are anticipated to grow by 60% QoQ, following a substantial increase in electricity sales volume.
CKP’s margins are also set to improve, with estimated gross margins rising to 38.7% from last year’s 29.5%. The firm also highlights that last year’s performance was hit by a 17-day shutdown at Xayaburi due to excessive water flow, making this year’s comparison even more favourable. In addition, CKP’s financing costs are expected to decline after the issuance of a THB 4 billion green debenture in July, supporting stronger earnings.
However, Bangpa-in Cogeneration (BIC) is expected to report weaker results, with electricity sales down 15% YoY and 13% QoQ due to scheduled overhauls. Yet, this will be partially offset by lower gas costs.
Looking ahead, Tisco anticipates a seasonal softening in 4Q25 earnings compared to the third quarter peak. Nonetheless, year-on-year performance remains up, buoyed by strong reservoir levels at Nuozhadu and Xiaowan, which underpin continued robust output from Xayaburi.
Despite these positives, Tisco notes several risks, including potential for lower-than-expected water inflows, rising gas prices, higher interest rates, an appreciating baht, and possible unplanned plant shutdowns.
With its attractive valuation and strong 2025 outlook, CKP remains a top pick in the sector, Tisco concludes.
