Thailand reported a 7.25% year-on-year decrease in foreign tourist arrivals from January 1 to December 21, 2025, according to data released by the Tourism Ministry on Tuesday. During this period, the country welcomed 31.76 million international visitors. The report identified Malaysia as Thailand’s top source country, accounting for 4.38 million tourists, closely followed by China with 4.36 million arrivals.
Despite the overall drop, industry analysts believe shifting travel dynamics in East Asia could spur a rebound for Thailand. Several leading securities firms highlighted that rising diplomatic and trade friction between China and Japan have encouraged Chinese travelers to opt for Southeast Asian destinations instead.
Analysis indicates that periods of heightened diplomatic tension between China and Japan typically result in a “diversion effect,” where Chinese travelers increasingly choose Southeast Asian destinations, with Thailand being the primary beneficiary due to its favorable visa policies and developed tourism infrastructure.
Investment research indicates that, should the dispute between China and Japan persist, Thailand could experience a surge in affluent Chinese tourists during the approaching Lunar New Year period. Such an influx might help offset the slower arrivals earlier in the year.
Last week, the Bank of Thailand held steady on its projection for 2025 foreign arrivals at 33 million. While this estimate falls short of the nearly 40 million seen in 2019 before the pandemic, the anticipated uptick in visitors from China could provide the momentum needed for Thailand to meet or potentially surpass official targets as year-end approaches
