KGI Securities (Thailand) has maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the Thai hotel sector, expecting hotel operators Central Plaza Hotel (SET: CENTEL), The Erawan Group (SET: ERW), and S Hotels and Resorts (SET: SHR) to post stronger normalized profits for the third quarter of 2025, despite the period typically being a softer quarter for tourism.
For CENTEL, KGI forecasts a normalized profit of THB 141 million in 3Q25, representing a 13.7% year-on-year decrease but a 34.8% improvement from the previous quarter. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) for Thai hotels is projected to grow 4% from last year, driven by 12% and 8% year-on-year RevPAR growth in Thailand and Japan, respectively. In contrast, CENTEL’s Maldives properties are expected to see RevPAR fall 27% year-on-year, an improvement over the previous quarter’s 46% year-on-year contraction.
Looking ahead, CENTEL’s earnings in 4Q25 are anticipated to increase further in line with the high tourism season and government stimulus measures. The company also appears well-positioned for growth following renovations completed in 2025. KGI maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating with a 2026 target price of THB 37.50, based on an EV/EBITDA of 10.8x.
For ERW, normalized profit for 3Q25 is expected at THB 86 million, down 30.8% year-on-year but climbing 39% quarter-on-quarter. The company’s economy to luxury hotels are expected to post a 10% year-on-year decline in RevPAR, while the figures should grow 4% quarter-on-quarter with an occupancy rate of 76%. The Hop Inn brand is set to see RevPAR rise 14% year-on-year, supported by a 12% year-on-year growth in room numbers to 7,700.
ERW’s 4Q25 earnings are also predicted to increase due to the peak tourism season and government support. KGI estimates normalized profits at THB 765 million for 2025 (-16.3% year-on-year) and THB 871 million for 2026 (+13.8% year-on-year), with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a target price of THB 3.25, based on a 10.0x EV/EBITDA.
SHR’s normalized profit in 3Q25 is projected at THB 144 million, swinging from a THB 20 million loss in 3Q24 and up from THB 11 million in 2Q25. RevPAR is forecast to increase 11% year-on-year in US dollars for Maldives hotels, equating to a 2% increase in baht terms, while Thai hotels should see a 31% year-on-year uplift, benefiting from the completed renovation of SAii Laguna Phuket.
RevPAR for UK hotels is expected to remain flat due to baht appreciation versus the pound. SHR has now posted profit turnarounds for four straight quarters. KGI assigns an ‘Outperform’ rating with a 2026 target price of THB 1.90, based on an EV/EBITDA of 6.8x.
Overall, KGI Securities remains optimistic on the Thai hotel sector, citing positive trends in RevPAR, robust earnings outlooks for the year-end high season, and further benefits from government tourism incentives.
