Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has noted that Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BH)’s core profit for 3Q25 rose 2% year-on-year (YoY), reversing declines seen in the first half when earnings slipped 8% from a year earlier.
Management, speaking at an analyst briefing, attributed the improvement to a strong revival in international patient revenue, which shifted from an 8% decrease in 1H25 to a 4% increase in 3Q25, largely driven by a 10% jump in Middle Eastern patients, compared to a 22% drop in 1H25.
Revenue from the Middle East, and particularly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, saw a notable upswing—up by 14% and 19% YoY, respectively in 3Q25, underpinned by higher revenue intensity compared to the first half of the year. This revived Middle Eastern contribution pushed revenue intensity up 9% YoY and lifted EBITDA margin to a record 41.5%.
Additional gains were reported in patient inflows from Myanmar (+21%), Bangladesh (+31%), and the United States (+12%). Meanwhile, patient numbers from Cambodia and China declined sharply, falling 75% and 16% YoY, respectively. The company expects the subdued performance in the Cambodian segment to persist through 4Q25, with normalization anticipated by the second quarter of 2026.
Nonetheless, the strong rise in Middle Eastern patient revenue offset the impact of weaker contributions from China and Cambodia, which together dragged on total revenue by 4% in 3Q25, allowing BH’s overall revenue to grow by 2% YoY for the quarter.
Looking ahead, management guided for 2-4% YoY revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by resilience in the Middle East, expatriates, and the U.S. markets. Thai patient revenue is also forecast to improve due to increased health check-up demand in the final quarter. As such, KKPS projects core profit growth to persist in 4Q25. For the full year, an overall 1% revenue decrease is expected due to a weak first half (-5% YoY), partially mitigated by stronger performance in the second half (+2-3% YoY). Revenue is anticipated to return to normalized 5% growth in 2026.
Reflecting the better-than-expected EBITDA margin performance, KKPS has raised its 2025-27 core profit forecasts by 2-3%. The securities house has also updated its discounted cash flow valuation to a 2026 base, resulting in a higher price objective of THB 230, up from THB 210 previously. The “Buy” recommendation is maintained, with BH trading at a compelling multiple of 18 times estimated 2026 earnings—well below its historical average of 37 times—as earnings growth resumes.
