Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS) delivered solid third-quarter results for 2025, with net income (NI) rising to THB 4.3 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase and 24% rise quarter-on-quarter. The bottom line came in 5% above JPMorgan’s estimate and 3% ahead of market consensus, driven by disciplined cost control.
JPMorgan gave an ‘Overweight’ rating to BDMS, with a target price of THB 27 per share, highlighting that the key upside was an improved EBITDA margin, compared to JPM’s expectation of 24%.
Below the operating lines, interest expense and tax rates came in slightly lower than forecast at THB 79 million and 17.9%, respectively. For the first nine months of 2025, results are tracking at 73% of JPMorgan’s and 74% of consensus full-year estimates, within the typical 72–80% range.
Revenue in 3Q25 grew 1% for both Thai and international patients. Notably, international patient revenue jumped in several key geographies—Myanmar (+35%), Qatar (+31%), and the U.S. (+20%)—while Cambodian patient revenue tumbled 65% year-on-year, affected by a border conflict. Excluding Cambodia, international patient revenue grew 10% year-on-year.
Bed occupancy decreased from 77% in 3Q24 to 66% in 3Q25, attributed to lower seasonal flu cases. Meanwhile, BDMS also benefited from BOI tax incentives tied to its Digital Core Transformation Project, resulting in a 16% reduction in corporate tax.
Similarly, Morgan Stanley also rated BDMS ‘Overweight’ with a target price of THB 29 per share, citing a well-managed margin profile despite slower revenue growth.
The brokerage firm noted that patient revenues from Thailand increased by 1% due to a weak macroeconomic environment and fewer influenza cases, though a rebound in cases lifted revenues in October.
The opening of two new hospitals added 291 beds, and overall cost control remained disciplined, supporting an EBITDA margin at 25.2%, up 15 basis points year-on-year.
Citi echoed the positive sentiment, maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on BDMS, with a target price of THB 34.30 per share. The third-quarter profit after tax and minority interest (PATMI) was THB 4.32 billion, a 1.7% year-on-year increase and 24% rise quarter-on-quarter, beating consensus by 5%.
For the first nine months of 2025, PATMI stood at THB 12.2 billion, representing 75% of Citi’s and consensus full-year forecasts, and tracking ahead of the typically stronger fourth quarter.
Hospital operations revenue in 3Q25 outperformed fears with 1% year-on-year growth, and EBITDA margin reached 25.2% due to improved bed utilization (66% in 3Q25 from 61% in 2Q25).
Following these, Kasikorn Securities (KS) provided further insights following the analyst meeting on Thursday, highlighting that BDMS management has set a full-year revenue growth target of 4% and an EBITDA margin of over 24%, compared to previous targets of 3–5% and 24–25%, respectively.
This guidance indicates that revenue in 4Q25 is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year. While management has yet to provide 2026 targets, they remain confident in ongoing revenue growth.
Tax savings are expected to continue throughout 4Q25 and into next year, with total tax benefits exceeding THB 130 million as of 3Q25. The company also plans to commence piling for its new BDMS WELLNESS LANGSUAN in 1Q26.
Regarding the Kuwaiti market, although previous expectations anticipated Kuwaiti medical tourists would visit Thailand in 4Q25, there has been no progress to date. However, management remains positive about opportunities in the market.
The outlook for Cambodian revenue in 4Q25 is stabilizing, with the rate of decline not expected to worsen. Additionally, revenue from BDMS’s two hospitals in Cambodia grew 5–6% in the first nine months of 2025.
KS noted that regulatory measures such as drug price controls or out-of-hospital drug purchases have a limited impact on BDMS, and management believes the Ministry of Commerce is unlikely to intervene in doctor fees or other private hospital charges.
Overall, the brokerage firm maintains a ‘Hold’ recommendation on BDMS with a target price of THB 20.4 per share. Despite a cautiously positive view from the meeting, KS emphasized that revenue growth in 4Q25 should notably surpass 3Q25, supported by continued tax savings and more stable Cambodian revenue, which could provide a positive catalyst for BDMS’s share price.
