Globlex Securities stated in an analysis that PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP) is set to see improved earnings prospects amid the latest surge of geopolitical risks in the global oil markets.
Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran—now a key source of oil market volatility—have resulted in heightened geopolitical risk premiums and pushed Brent crude prices above the $65 per barrel level. These risks stem from concerns over new sanctions, U.S. pressure, and potential military escalation, which in turn boost worries over possible disruptions to Iranian oil production and exports. Globlex expects these dynamics to support Brent crude pricing in the near to mid-term, providing a favorable backdrop for PTTEP.
Iran, a linchpin in the global oil market, is responsible for about 4% of global oil demand through its production of 3.9–4 million barrels per day (mbpd), with exports ranging from 1.3 to 2 mbpd. Its strategic position along the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade daily, cements its importance to global energy security. Even rumors or plausible threats to this transit route spark a jump in risk premiums and trigger immediate moves in crude prices, given the lack of viable alternative export channels for Middle Eastern oil.
Globlex noted that with geopolitics continuing to place a floor under oil prices, market volatility is likely to have a tightening effect on effective global supply even as demand remains stable. Their base case sees Brent crude trading in a $65–75 per barrel range in 2026, with an upside of $5 per barrel should geopolitical pressures around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz persist or intensify further. This environment, characterized by higher risk premiums and potential supply disruptions, is seen as structurally beneficial for crude oil prices.
For PTTEP, these developments translate into a brighter 2026 earnings outlook. The company is poised for volume growth, supported by recent mergers and acquisitions and production ramp-ups at core fields, with expected sales volumes rising to 566,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Higher crude prices should further lift the average selling price, offsetting a modest gas price ($5.7 per million British thermal units) and elevated operating costs ($30–31 per barrel of oil equivalent).
Reflecting these positive trends, Globlex has upgraded PTTEP to a “Buy” recommendation, raising its target price to THB128 per share (up from THB112). The firm also revised its 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple upwards to 1.9x from 1.6x, citing a more favorable crude oil environment and a structural improvement in PTTEP’s earnings visibility.
