KKPS Rates ‘Neutral’ on TTB amidst Improved Loan Growth and Robust Coverage in 4Q25

According to an analysis by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS), TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited (SET: TTB) has reported a net profit of THB 5.24 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 4% increase year-on-year, but a slight 1% decrease quarter-on-quarter.

For the full year, TTB posted a profit of THB 20.64 billion, a 2% drop from last year, though this result still topped both KKPS and consensus estimates by 2% and 1%, respectively.

The bank’s pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) decreased by 9% year-on-year, primarily due to a contraction in net interest margin (NIM). Despite this, net fees increased by 9% year-on-year, driven by bancassurance, wealth management, and credit cards, but this growth was insufficient to fully offset the reduced net interest income (NII).

TTB’s provision fell by 17% year-on-year in 2025, attributed to manageable asset quality and a reduction in average credit cost to 1.36% from 1.54% in 2024, even as the bank boosted reserve overlays by THB 3.67 billion to cover ongoing economic uncertainties and flooding risks. The company also utilized THB 4.9 billion of tax benefits in 2025, leaving THB 5.7 billion available until the first half of 2027.

Loan performance improved sequentially, with total loans increasing 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q25, though still down 2.9% year-on-year due to ongoing hire purchase (HP) loan repayments. New HP loan bookings saw a 22% quarter-on-quarter rebound, reflecting seasonal effects from the Motor Show.

Housing and personal loans continued to grow both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, affirming TTB’s strategic focus on home refinancing and expanding consumer lending. Corporate loans also rose 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, led by stronger working capital demand. By segment, corporate loans make up 31% of TTB’s total portfolio, SMEs account for 7%, and retail loans represent 62%.

Asset quality remained stable, with non-performing loans (NPLs) decreasing 0.4% quarter-on-quarter to 3.22% in 4Q25, despite the conclusion of the ‘You Fight We Help’ program. NPL formation eased to 1.35%, and both NPL sales and write-offs reduced from the previous quarters. The loan loss coverage ratio remained robust at 152%.

KKPS noted that TTB’s share price has been buoyed by a THB 7.9 billion share buyback program at THB 2.02 per share. As a result, the analyst maintains a ‘Neutral’ rating on TTB with a target price of THB 2.10 per share.