True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) has seen its share price climb steadily over four consecutive trading days, as investors anticipate that the company could increase its dividend payout above the minimum threshold of 50% of net profit. This optimism is driven by a significant reduction in investment burdens and mirrors the strategy employed by Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC).
Contrary to some analyst forecasts, a telecommunications industry source clarified that TRUE has no plans to pay a special dividend at this time. The company will stick to regular dividend payments expected for 2025.
The approach is shaped by the ongoing transition from Telenor’s exit as a major shareholder. TRUE is reserving excess cash for future dividends, specifically for Arise Digital Technology, which will acquire TRUE shares from Telenor in 2026. This move aims to avoid granting extraordinary benefits to existing shareholders before the transaction closes.
Telenor’s exit is now in its final stages, with all core agreements and sub-contracts nearing completion. The share transfer is expected to conclude within the next one to two months, at THB 11.70 per share. Telenor will make no additional benefit claims from the deal.
Simultaneously, TRUE is undertaking a significant corporate restructuring. The company will become a subsidiary focused on telecom infrastructure, while Arise Digital Technology will be established as the parent holding company. This strategic shift, called “Beyond Telecom”, positions TRUE to evolve from a traditional network provider into a value-added service platform.
Arise Group’s new structure will emphasize three main growth pillars:
Telecom & Digital Platform: TRUE’s mobile and broadband services as the network backbone.
Data Center & Cloud: Expansion into cloud services and data centers for sustainable value creation.
Financial Services: Offering digital financial products, such as TrueMoney, Ascend Money, and a Virtual Bank, accessible via TRUE’s mobile network.
With this transition, TRUE’s future revenue will move beyond traditional mobile packages and into content, OTT, cloud services, data center leasing, and transaction fees from financial services.
There is also the possibility that Arise Digital Technology could list on both domestic and international stock exchanges to facilitate future capital raising and business expansion.
For 4Q25, TRUE’s financial results are expected to be moderately strong, supporting the company’s continued payment of regular dividends at the end of 2025.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) has reiterated its “Buy” recommendation for TRUE, pointing to stable management despite Telenor’s exit. The firm expects core profit growth of 33% in 4Q25 and 2026, raising its dividend payout ratio estimate from 50% to 60% in 2026 and to 70% from 2027 onwards, with a price target of THB 15.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) also sees room for higher-than-standard dividends, noting reduced investment needs after the market consolidated to two main players and fierce price competition subsided. Yuanta expects TRUE to yield THB 0.24 per share for 2025 (with THB 0.19 already paid as interim), potentially rising to THB 0.49 per share in 2026, supported by an estimated net profit of THB 24 billion, a 30% increase. TRUE still trades at a 20-30% discount to ADVANC, with a target price of THB 16.
