CGS International Securities Thailand (CGSI) stated that True Corporation Plc. reported a robust fourth quarter for 2025, swinging to a net profit of THB4.0 billion from a net loss of THB7.5 billion in the same period last year, beating its projections by 25%. The stronger-than-expected result was driven mainly by a THB1.8 billion tax gain adjustment. Even though the company recognized higher-than-anticipated impairments totaling THB4.3 billion for investments, goodwill, and redundant network assets, normalized net profit for 4Q25 was THB6.53 billion—15% above estimates.
For 2025, True’s net profit reached THB9.24 billion, with normalized net profit doubling year-on-year to THB19.8 billion. The improvement in earnings reflects significant cost reductions and network modernization efforts.
Looking forward, True Corp aims for 2-3% service revenue growth for 2026 (excluding interconnection charges), 7-9% EBITDA growth, and capital expenditure in the range of THB25-27 billion. The company expects growth to be driven by the addition of mobile and broadband subscribers and improved ARPU (Average Revenue Per User). Cost savings from spectrum acquisition in 2025 and tighter financial controls are also highlighted as key drivers for EBITDA growth.
Following these results and in line with True’s updated guidance, analysts have increased their earnings per share estimates for 2026-2027 by 0.8-20.4%. Dividend payout assumptions have been raised to 70% of net profit for 2026-2028.
Consequently, the DCF-based target price for True Corp is raised from THB14.70 to THB18.30, and the Add rating is reaffirmed. This reflects expectations of continued net profit growth, higher dividends, and a more favorable competitive landscape after the spectrum auction in June 2025.
Key downside risks remain: increased competition and potential rises in network and marketing costs. However, stronger cost savings and subscriber growth could prompt further upgrades.
