According to Globlex Securities, the macroeconomic narrative in global markets has recently pivoted from trade policy concerns to geopolitical risk, following a renewed flare-up of tensions in the Middle East over the weekend. This shift is injecting a new risk premium into crude oil markets, with energy pricing becoming the central conduit for volatility.
Brent crude prices are anticipated to trend higher in the near term, potentially testing the mid-to-high $70s per barrel range. While there is currently no indication of structural disruptions to global oil supply, this heightened uncertainty is stoking price volatility and is prompting global asset managers to rebalance portfolios toward energy-linked assets.
Unlike technology-heavy developed markets, which are more sensitive to rising geopolitical risk, Thailand’s SET Index features a sector composition dominated by Energy and Banking names.
The substantial weight of these sectors acts as a relative stabilizer, as strength in energy firms can help offset broader global risk aversion. While this does not grant the Thai market immunity from external shocks, it does enhance relative resilience compared to indices heavily concentrated in high-growth technology sectors.
The renewed momentum in crude pricing also introduces fresh macroeconomic variables for Thailand. Should Brent crude maintain levels near $80, imported energy-driven cost pressures could complicate the Bank of Thailand’s inclination toward policy easing.
Globlex highlights that the impact on monetary expectations depends largely on the duration of crude’s rally; a transient surge would benefit energy sector earnings without materially influencing central bank policy, whereas a prolonged rally could pressure Thailand’s consumption sectors and tighten financial conditions.
The brokerage emphasizes a tactical, rather than structural, overweight allocation to upstream energy producers with direct sensitivity to crude prices. Select refiners (TOP, SPRC, BCP) may see upside from inventory revaluation gains, though margin outlooks will depend on crack spreads and domestic price control policies.
PTTEP is underscored as the optimal upstream play for those seeking to capture potential upside from sustained crude strength. PTT’s integrated model offers stability should volatility recede.
Meanwhile, large banks like BBL continue to provide defensive, dividend-driven support. Given ongoing price volatility, the brokerage advises continued caution toward aviation and sectors heavily exposed to fuel costs.
