Global gas markets have seen a dramatic surge in prices, with ICE Endex Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures climbing over 80% since late February 2026, according to Bloomberg data. This sharp increase comes amid prolonged disruptions in the Middle East that threaten global energy supply, particularly due to the ongoing suspension of Qatari LNG exports.
Morgan Stanley’s global commodities team estimates that up to 150 billion cubic meters per year—approximately 23% of the global LNG market—could be affected by these disruptions.
Against this volatile backdrop, Morgan Stanley has identified potential winners and losers among ASEAN utilities and renewable energy players should high gas prices persist. The investment bank highlights that the relative outlook for companies across the region is highly dependent on local regulatory structures and market conditions.
According to the analysis, companies in the Philippines and Malaysia emerge as relative “safe havens.” Utility firms in these countries benefit from regulatory mechanisms that enable them to pass on rising fuel costs to consumers, thereby providing a buffer against fluctuating gas prices. This insulation is likely to draw risk-averse investors seeking defensive positions amid ongoing market volatility.
Conversely, certain subsectors are likely to be negatively impacted:
- In Indonesia, gas utility PGAS, which Morgan Stanley gives an ‘Overweight’ rating, could face margin pressure. Although LNG accounts for roughly 20% of its gas supply in 2026, the company is not able to pass on the entirety of higher LNG prices—which are priced at a 16% slope versus the Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP)—to end users.
- In Thailand, high LNG prices spell trouble for utility stocks such as BGRIM (Underweight) and GPSC (Overweight), as these companies are heavily exposed to global gas price swings.
- The Singapore power market presents a mixed picture. While Sembcorp (Neutral) and YTL Power (Neutral) may experience varied impacts, both stand to face challenges from higher gas input costs, particularly given Singapore’s current oversupply of power.
