Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) has provided an updated outlook on Thailand’s tourism sector for week 9 of 2026 (February 23 to March 1), revealing nuanced developments in arrivals and potential downside risks stemming from ongoing Middle East tensions.
In the latest data, Thailand welcomed 676,963 international tourists during the week, averaging 96,700 visitors per day. This figure represents a 23% week-on-week decrease, largely attributed to a slowdown across all market segments, particularly East Asian markets following the end of Chinese New Year holidays.
However, the year-on-year comparison showed a modest 1% increase, marking the third consecutive week of annual growth, mainly due to last year’s low base from Chinese arrivals.
Meanwhile, the ongoing unrest in the Middle East notably dampened tourist numbers from both the Middle East and Europe. On March 1, arrivals from these regions fell sharply by 60% and 25%, respectively, compared to the previous week.
Chinese tourists remained a bright spot, surging by 89% year-on-year to 122,169 visitors, although this was still a 39% decrease week-on-week. They accounted for 18% of total arrivals, down from 23% in the prior week. Non-Chinese arrivals dropped 18% week-on-week and slipped by 8% year-on-year, averaging 79,300 visitors daily.
The top five source countries for the period are China (-39% WoW), Russia (-9% WoW), Malaysia (-56% WoW), India (+10% WoW), and South Korea (-4% WoW).
Looking ahead, FSS anticipates a further decline in tourist arrivals both week-on-week and year-on-year, owing to persistent tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted travel patterns for visitors from the region and Europe, especially those transiting via Middle Eastern hubs. Chinese tourist numbers are also expected to fall on a weekly basis but continue to grow year-on-year.
Cumulatively, from January 1 to March 1, 2026, Thailand welcomed 6.62 million foreign tourists, generating revenue of 327 billion baht. In February, arrivals totalled 3.26 million—broadly in line with expectations and marking the first year-on-year growth in 13 months, up 5%.
For 1Q26, FSS forecasts arrivals at 9.46 million, up 7% quarter-on-quarter but down 1% year-on-year. For the full year, the firm projects 35 million international visitors (+6% YoY), including 4.78 million from China (+6% YoY) and 30.23 million from other countries (+7% YoY).
Nevertheless, FSS outlines several downside scenarios based on varying degrees of disruption from the Middle East situation:
- Best-case scenario: If Middle East arrivals fall 60%, Europe 25%, and other markets 5% for one month, total arrivals could still reach 34.7 million (+5% YoY).
- Base-case scenario: With the Middle East down 60%, Europe 20%, and others 5% for three months, arrivals may be limited to 34.1 million (+3% YoY).
- Worst-case scenario: Should declines of 60% (Middle East), 20% (Europe), and 8% (others) persist for six months, total arrivals could fall to 32.8 million (-1% YoY).
